Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-17
Source: Beijing Youth Daily
In addition to using wait, hesitate to describe the current market, other words seem less appropriate to describe the way in the H-share market, when singing, A-share market is still adjusting Su Liang. Investors are looking forward to the arrival of mid-year report Quotes in the hope of a change since the boring month of the atmosphere, but it seems the market does not appreciate it, although some stocks have a nice mid-year report notice, but it is still in adjusting. Is it also hard to change mid-year report positive market weakness?
Current Guests: and hearing the text messages, chief analyst at the National Day;, chief analyst at Morgan Stanley Investment XU governance; National Securities senior analyst Xu a nail; Gao Germany Gold CEO Zhang Weixing
â–?daily news will bring blue-chip Quotes do?
Reporter: This month, the tape has been carrying out in-depth adjustment, the reason for not fully apparent from the indices, all relied on the financial blue chips represented. Blue chips of the stock market will soon begin in mid-year report Quotes do? Budie do they happen? Why?
XU Zhi: This weeks Quotes have been below 4,000 points, while blue-chip strength, but the volume has hit its lowest level in 2007, turnover to new lows, the market is watching atmosphere. And some time ago, investors have become increasingly rational, before the high turnover caused by the savings, the sale of rendering large retail features, is now clear that the retail Quotes have come to an end. Although overshadowed by the retail sector some time ago the thunder, but also rely on the stock market operation strength, institutions have gradually regain market dominance. In such a market context, the agency favored banking stocks, insurance stocks began to stabilize, which conceals the subject shares fell, stocks differentiation increasingly evident.
The next period of time, the pressure from the policy point of view, the macro-control, tightening of liquidity, the size of the non-lifting of the ban, the market expansion, all this means money for some time in the future face will tighten up. But the bull market still going strong, blue-chip expansion is expected to be large institutions as the core chip, which means that some time ago by the new investors to create chaos in the end, followed by blue-chip is expected to become the backbone of the market, from the chaos into clarity.
Xu a nail: The stock market has a feature to play ahead of quantity, the recent blue-chip do well, after the market correction, there are some funds in the maintenance of target stocks, and especially the first few major Shanghai index heavyweights, these shares stable trend, there rebound before the formation of the Shanghai Composite Index is now the technology looks great shape. Blue-chip stocks in the banking, insurance stocks this year is good, especially the mid-year report into the notice period, a group of institutional funds are also concerned about the good performance of blue chips, looking for opportunities.
The adjustment and many years ago, before adjustments have experienced a net redemption of the Christian Democrats, resulting in a passive fund managers lighten up, and this just does not happen, even to some extent on the Jingshen Gou, so that fund managers do not redemption pressure, not a passive lighten up, to protect the blue-chip chip's "stability." That which does have a blue-chip performance is now good, pre-increasing reasons, but we must be clear, the holder of the largest blue chips do not need to deal with because of redemption pressure, then these stocks will go more smoothly.
As for the blue-chip trend of how the need to consider the major players who are some of the value of their major institutional investors, including funds, insurance, QFII, professional investment institutions and a number of specialized Research Fund, The Awkwardness of small and medium investors, these investors were, the key is depends on two things: First, if some blue chips up more in the middle will certainly be some institutions to carry out structural change positions, go get some low-valuation of stocks, it will affect the movement of a part of blue-chip; look at what the fund redemption of If we can maintain the current overall balance and guarantee a certain Jingshen Gou, then the blue-chip sharp fall is unlikely.
In addition, some factors on the blue-chip results of operations will also have an impact, such as the abolition of interest tax on refined oil prices, interest rates and other policies that come out will affect the performance of related businesses, affecting stock prices, and thus give rise holdings of institutional investors. CPI expected next week could also affect the blue-chip trend.
Text National Day: Quotes will not be carried blue-chip, but also it can not be Daotou, slightly up-down stairs only, it has been basically almost a rising bank stocks is almost due, there is little opportunity for the insurance. Blue chips may also Budie, mid-year report is expected to only a pretext, the fund of funds raised nothing to do, he will have something for the stock bar, it would definitely buy a good performance, and blue-chip has become the first choice. But not the entire capital market access, combined with the Fund also does not have much money, so do not count on be able to push these stocks to what extent.
Zhang Weixing: Many topics shares have dropped by half, in the case of inability to rebound, pre-stock of hot money speculation themes seriously injured, in such circumstances, the blue chips and large-cap stocks this part of the collective has been a favorite of hot money, it should be said that in subject stock bubble burst in the process of hot money in the manufacture of a blue chip bubble. But now the market cooled down, the new money did not come so much, so I personally think that the blue chips in the mid-year report will not have too obvious Quotes performance. The current market trend has been fully reflected the performance of mid-year report. Blue-chip Budie The possibility exists, macroeconomic overheating is likely to lead to greater government regulation, affected the financial industry, if the intensity relatively large impact will be enormous.
â–?Volume does not subject stocks to enlarge Moxi
Reporter: sliced subject shares and performance shares to adjust the depth of experienced repeated, is not that some are being victimizes? Why do some individual stocks, although the notice of the mid-year report very good or a bad break? For the current market terms, the news is not good nor useful it?
XU rule: There is no need to be investigated whether the subject has been victimizes shares, the market is not victimizes any stocks. These stocks mainly depends on market turnover, turnover is not to enlarge a Moxi's. Daily news first, do not speak of this good depends on how much stock up before, previous speculation is not already overdrawn by mid-year report results ahead of schedule. Market psychology may be an overreaction, those growth well and has supported the stock performance, you can buy when oversold. There is no pure blue chip stocks or underperformance stock, depending on stock location.
Xu a nail: The victimizes stocks certainly, but in the current market is still to be considered safe, can not be said that the market victimizes, became advocates of these shares, the market did not know when to rehabilitate it, blind to wait for it is not necessary, the stock market is full of pitfalls and risks, investors must be clear before entering the market of what kind of money does not earn in the market to see unclear when the context of increased uncertainty, as well as the risks and benefits disproportionately time to learn to give up. At present, the overall market is waiting to see the state, turnover is also shrinking, and tap the stock has been victimizes too much trouble. When markets clear, then consider this matter. Daily news is very meaningful, a large amount of money investors are looking at the performance of business the next two years, buying stocks for the future expectations, but not now.
Wen Guoqing: victimizes or less normal, that is, the normal adjustment ah, there is support for the stock performance also needs cash to prop up share prices subject matter, the general results do not support such increases. Shares are now down 50% of the subjects are normal, these stocks rose an average of two times during the first half, and now down 50%, as well as 50% of it, a number of blue-chip stocks is this level. But the theme of the event up stocks that rose faster than blue-chip stocks.
According to individual stocks circumstances, subject to later rebound in stocks, it should be later in August, there will be relatively large number of subjects stocks rebound, another record high, focus on the outbreak in September. However, some substantial increase in the stock's own performance, in the past few days would be released last week, gained about, look at short-term can be manipulated.
Zhang satellites: the process of collapse certainly fell down right there are also wrong, but if wrong, the inevitable fall will come back up. In fact, some stocks have soared during the daily news digest of the results, it was impossible longer mid-year report positive stimulus.
â–?broad market dip further possible?
Reporter: tape making the depth adjustment, seem to have reached a crossroads, in 3500 points to 4000 points, up and down repeated shocks, turnover continued to shrink and tape do you think the recent further dip, possible? What are the conditions under which it will market a noticeable turn for the better? How should investors do?
XU rule: there is no turning point in the current market trend is still in wait and see period to shocks mainly stocks differentiation will become increasingly acute. Changes in the market is the turning point, and now the amount of shrinkage of funds, institutions and guide the market into the mainstream this is the turning point, and this is a fist stock up opportunities.
Xu a nail: From the technical point of view, 3500 points to enter the Japanese market rebound phase of the cycle, but look at the last few days of the stock market rebound is very weak, CPI data released next Thursday, we still would be more concerned about the introduction of regulation monetary policy, so the market's wait and see who more and more less and less volume, so before the end of the rally, but also out of the weak trend. Fell below 3500 points, the possibility exists. Fell to 3,500 points last Friday, because of blue-chip cover, adjustment was not sufficient. I personally feel that a rebound is still too early to talk about, does not make sense to talk about the conditions even more.
Text National Day: It is possible Revisited 3500 points, the estimated points are already in place, but not willing to come in funding. Now we all know, the macro-economic development too fast, there will be more stringent control measures itself, and what measures we do not know the case of the broader market will appear a few hundred points, callback, and then once at the end of exploration. Other advantage of this opportunity, and macro measures are done out of time, everyone is relieved, then the market will turn for the better.
Zhang Weixing: According to rules of speaking, in the summer for Quotes conversion, the market would be thrown off-season, experienced a rise in the spring, and now normal rest for some time. I personally think it is still not in place, 3500 points, also face future challenges. Needs of the market for some time, need a new power to promote the theme, stock may be risen to 6000 points, but before that could drop to 3,000 points, the market will have upward momentum.
