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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Shanghai Securities News
Conjecture 1:
Black Monday, the trend appears
Achieve the probability: 65%
Specific reasons: Due to heavy selling pressure, while pressure from a number of fabricated news, the Shanghai Composite Index diving in the late again. So to illustrate how the market began to gush Fu Chou, while the pre-hot stocks fall will greatly undermine investors holding confidence in it, which naturally would make the next Monday's A-share market faces enormous pressure.
Coping strategies: a bull market adjustment is also very tragic, it is recommended not to easily rebound as investors, while some of the early leading the species to be a positive over-lighten up, to keep the fruits of victory.
Conjecture 2:
3G plates decline stopped and stabilized to achieve the probability: 60%
Specific reasons: a group based on 3G on the 3G industry, is expected this week, five industrial stocks plunge into the market after lunch city diving champion. However, as the 3G industry, the enormous cake industry, as well as the 3G industry is expected to share characteristics such as technology stocks were mostly Therefore, 3G industry stocks may be the existence of stabilized stabilized.
Coping strategies: The 3G industry stocks should be segmented, terminal equipment, 3G plates to be careful, especially mobile phones and other firms. The right system device company, for example, BOCO, TeamSun, etc., concerned.
Conjecture 3:
Second-line blue chips to achieve a strong probability of reproduction: 55%
Specific reasons: Many blue-chip with a performance of second-line stability and growth is expected to determine the valuation of the relative strengths, so the new fund issue in the current wave of promotion, second-line blue chips, most likely occur next Monday stabilized stabilized trend, thus inhibiting broader market continued to fall space .
Coping strategies: It is recommended investors have a reasonable valuation and now has a new profit growth point of the second-line blue chips to be an active interest, especially railway transport, highways, airports and other ports are listed as a whole is expected to stocks.
Conjecture 4:
Plate decline stopped and stabilized to achieve the probability of new shares: 65%
Specific reasons for this: A stock diving this weekend, the pressure comes mainly from North Star, China Merchants Energy Shipping obvious features such as speculation of new shares to plunge. Although the type of valuation of stocks, even after the crash is still overvalued, but if the opening next Monday there a third daily limit, off-course money is very likely rebound, making the new shares stabilized stabilized plate.
Coping strategies: For the board, these new shares, so as not rebound because the valuation of high and through the adjustment of the main trend of entry after Shenglang. But the small section of new shares due to valuation is reasonable, a good short-term opportunities.
Conjecture 5:
Banking, real estate stocks once again support the market to achieve the probability: 50%
Specific reasons: For the next week, the trend could quickly stabilized the key to banking stocks, while real estate stocks could once again strong. From the current short-term vagaries of the fundamentals of view, this short-term pressure on the two plates greater probability of only about 50 percent support the market. Especially after the failure of this week, five support the market, is very likely to support the market confidence in the fight against bull.
Coping strategies: If the banking stocks, while real estate stocks will no longer support the market, but some adjustments, that is quite an opportunity to bargain-hunting, since such stocks Zhang Sheng power, appreciation of the yuan remains.
