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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Morning News
When the central bank released this week, three-date financial data, while the National Tax Administration of the real estate control policies introduced, the market sell-off in the long-accumulated finally found an outlet breakthrough. However, there is a strong inertia makes up for each adjustment and the time is very short. Therefore, following the Wednesday after the deadliest sell into Quotes, Thursday, Friday's also reasonable that the rebound in Tandi. Volume of transactions continue to create days, indicating long-short position of the two sides in the current change hands very positive, in the short term difficult to launch stock index futures, capital outflows, while blue chip companies, small and medium panels in small-cap growth stocks and second-line blue chips were signs of a marked inflow of capital .
Overall, short-term upward trend of stock shocks are very evident and the differentiation of individual stocks are inevitable, the focus of funds take care of second-line stocks, pre-or small-cap stocks in the relatively backward will continue active, the market was still not short-term opportunities for less.
[Opportunity Plate]
The opportunity to discover the vision
Comprehensive features of the current disk, pharmaceutical stocks, the small-cap stocks and technology stocks as short-term market hot.
Medical Unit: the rise of industry consolidation leading
The plate is obvious recent trend of compensatory growth, in which he alleged pharmaceutical business unit for the most, which is obviously being directly related to promoting health care reform.
Health care reform will speed up the integration of pharmaceutical commercial enterprises. Traditional distribution business continued to decline in profitability, market concentration is also low in 2005, the top three market share of pharmaceutical distribution companies is about 20%, the top 10 largest pharmaceutical distribution companies a market share of 37%. Therefore, the current slowdown of the industrial environment for the emergence of a strong company, providing a lower integration costs. The next 5-10 years, the Chinese pharmaceutical distribution industry will move toward rapidly assemble, the former 3-4 companies will account for 3 / 4 or more market share. "Medical reform" will accelerate the integration of pharmaceutical commercial enterprises.
The pharmaceutical industry investment in this year's theme will focus on biotechnology, self-innovation and resource integration of these three themes. In the new round of health care reform to promote the process, will continue to push down drug prices, but the price cuts will become more reasonable, and would be more consideration of clinical needs and the business R & D costs, with the scale advantages advantages of leading enterprises and research and development of small and medium enterprises will be more market competitiveness. Companies can focus attention: Shanghai Pharmaceutical, Tong Ren Tang, Tasly, Xinhua medical, Huashenjituan, double-Heron Pharmaceutical, Tonghua Dongbao, Huahai, Wuhan Jianmin, Nanjing medicine, Sinopharm shares, Shanghai Pharmaceutical.
In the small-cap stocks: growth can be expected
In the small-cap stocks 11 and in December of last year's market performance is far behind the market, only some individual stocks outperform indices, stocks were down nearly 1 / 3. After this phase of the rise in the valuation of large-cap stocks have been relatively high. The consumer services sector, for example, large-cap stocks as a whole is currently close to or above 40 times earnings, book value has more than four times the relative attractiveness of their valuations are declining, while the adjustment of the pressure has begun to accumulate; In contrast, small and medium advantages of plate beginning to show the valuation of stocks, the average price-earnings ratio less than 30 times the book value is also lower than 3 times.
From the perspective of the economic cycle, when the overall economic climate and ever-increasing, the performance of large-cap stocks to be significantly beyond the small-cap stocks. When the economy is in decline during the period when the performance of large-cap stocks were generally weaker than small-cap stocks. The slowdown in GDP growth this year, has become the market consensus, in this case, the investment in small-cap stocks have the opportunity to receive more than investment returns of large capitalization stocks.
Although the market's long-term overall trend is still more optimistic, but as the market's overall valuation of the rapid increases in the annual report focused on the arrival of the publication period, and the stock index futures and other financial innovations introduced delay, the future for some time, investors in the investment strategy should, appropriately configured to reduce the proportion of large-cap stocks, to raise the proportion of small-cap growth stock configuration.
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Technology stocks: Industrial Upgrading profit space l
In the earlier stage of the stock market dominated by large-cap stocks in the valuation of technology stocks is not significantly higher, while the industrial growth momentum remained strong this year, the current relative valuation more reasonable. Thus, in the first quarter would be better to find something for a moment to enter. Among these, the listing will be Microsoft's Vista operating system, related industries and listed companies have a positive impact, will be the hot spot market, the next stage of speculation.
Vista applications, not only upgrade the system, more is a computer hardware upgrade. Vista launch will greatly facilitate the replacement of personal computer users to boom, thus promoting the increase in demand for the upper reaches of the relevant components; commercial software is also faced with upgrading to promote enterprise development in the new one. May benefit from the current A-share market listed companies, including Tongfang, Founder Technology, UFIDA Software, Chinese microelectronics, Zhong Ke San Huan, the Great Wall development, long-electricity technology, Hongtugaoke so.
Background from the international point of view, over the past 10 years, the performance of the most depressed technology stocks are currently high hopes for investors. Most of the world since October last year, analysts have raised their rating on the company's information technology classes. According to Bloomberg News survey of the views of some analysts reports, computers, software, mobile phone companies such as net profit will grow 23% this year, it will be the S & P 500 Index 10 major industries in the best-performing stocks. Vista operating system will be the lead was considered the leading technology stocks rebounded.
[Risk plate]
Wise people do not under-li Wei Qiang
Although the midline bullish broad market, but the risk of individual stocks this week, a sudden amplification, therefore, high valuations and worthless stocks to avoid.
Real estate stocks: Policy-induced profit taking
National Tax Administration issued the "value-added tax on real estate development enterprise land management issues related to the liquidation of the notice" will be converted to liquidation of land value-added tax by the warning sings of real estate stocks this week, external adjustment, the valuation is adjusted too high The internal factors.
Due to the secondary real estate regulation does not meet the expected results, a possible future introduction of the policy include: increased enforcement of the policy has been enacted. May be sent by the central authorities, "Inspector Group" supervision and inspection of local government on the regulation and control policy implementation; continue to tighten monetary policy and real root; local government introduced a specific detailed measures (land, taxes, sales area); property tax or real estate tax; Canada interest rates and other monetary policies, and even further increase the proportion of down payment.
At present, most real estate stocks have been fully reflected in the valuation of the level of performance growth in 2006, and even partly reflecting growth in 2007 results. Of course, been misunderstood and over-selling classes of rental income and property shares such as China, Pudong Jinqiao Trade worthy of attention.
Put Warrants: the risk of rampant speculation that has been great
Most of the stock reform warrants expire in 2007, basically, and as the basic end of the share reform, the new stock is unlikely to change the C of E; due to China's current lack of market-maker system, short-term introduction of covered warrants is not the size of innovation may be too large, so that 2007 will be the mainstay of the market warrants have characteristics of equity financing warrants. From a global point of view, equity warrants are not warrants the main development of the market, and because the creation of equity warrants can not be brokers, may contribute to an atmosphere of speculation, causing regulators to introduce new restrictions, therefore, warrants market development in 2007 There is a certain uncertainty.
Overall, although the market over the past year a lot of irrational speculation, but it warrants a decisive driving force is still being shares sharply higher, while the put warrants of the stock market is basically purely speculative funds to promote. At present the market's overall position warrants remains high, which which put warrants in particular, had been overestimated, mainly in the market warrant price movements and positioning of the irrational, negative as well as the premium rate of long-standing outside the warrant is exercisable at a price, etc. .
We believe that the put warrants will the bubble burst in the last 2-3 months there, most of put warrants expire worthless a foregone conclusion. Statistics show that in the first half of 2007 due to a total of 15 warrants, which put warrants as many as nine (one due in February, March 2, with April 1, with May 4, with in June 1). Investors are advised to stay away from these fundamental do not have the value of variety.
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