Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-23
Latest baked brokerage fund investment strategy in the second quarter report shows that
Institutions to give high attention to changes in monetary policy
April is relatively loose environment for the restructuring of the market has facilitated mergers and acquisitions speculation themes
Finally from the 1300-point index of regional breakout, institutional investors look at what the market outlook? From the broker, funds and some institutional investors in the second quarter of newly released report on the investment strategy can be seen, the current policy of institutional investors are most concerned about side factors are: deposit reserve ratio adjustments in excess capacity the industry restructuring, as well as the new shares issue, re-financing to start the potential expansion of the pressure. The agencies concerned about the market for hot spots appeared in the diverse subject matter, hot spots spring up all over the excitement of the situation.
Generally have the expected monetary tightening
Report from each of the investment strategy can be seen, the central bank may adopt tight monetary policy is currently the top priority concern of institutional investors, their attention, even more than the previous expansion of the market talk of new shares up to the pressure.
Country Gold Securities research report pointed out that, in 2006 January-February fixed asset investment growth remains strong, the central government has a clear plan of the railways, power transmission and distribution, and new investment in rural areas of growth are evident afterburner, while the local government investment there has been no sign of decline. Over-abundant supply of capital investment contributed to a rebound in the second half of 2005 an important factor, a phenomenon that is forcing the central bank adopt a more restrictive monetary policy. They expected that these policies are not only increase the intensity of open market operations, but will speed up the appreciation of open market operations to increase the strength and raise the deposit reserve ratio of the "combination of boxing."
Shenyin Securities Research has also clearly stated in order to maintain appropriate growth of monetary credit, if the investment data on the high side, do not rule out the central bank will again raise the deposit reserve the possibility of such policies.
So, monetary policy tightening will be related trades and what impact? State Sea Franklin Fund, a research report that the increase in deposit reserve ratio for banks a negative impact on bond portfolio, but a limited impact on overall profitability. At present the banking sector loan-deposit ratio of about 69%, to raise the deposit reserve ratio for banks to normal lending will not be affected.
Concern excess capacity restructuring of the industry
Another focus is the concerns of the industry the State Council issued the "excess capacity on accelerating the adjustment of industry structure notice", will affect the future market potential. Shen million study proposed in the report, the information will have a number of specific industries, like steel, coal, automobiles and other excess or potentially excess capacity tremendous impact on the industry, but also will promote a new round of industry merger and reorganization.
GF Securities raised in the studies, consumer upgrades, technology upgrades and excess capacity in the integration of the "Eleventh Five-Year" period of economic development theme, and these three topics related investment is worth sustained attention. According to the State Development and Reform Commission survey data show that iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum, copper smelting, automotive, coke, calcium carbide, building materials and other heavy chemical industry overcapacity problem is more serious. Tradable share reform and the integration of the capacity to provide a better operating environment and an opportunity to overcapacity M & A investment themes worthy of attention. Moreover, the industry behind the elimination of production capacity will effectively prevent the entire industry into owning household, giving the industry's leading companies improve profitability and technological upgrading of the creation of healthy competitive environment eventually will effectively enhance the investment value of the leading companies.
New from the old may bring short-term shocks
Market has been highly vigilant against new from the old problems in the short-term strategy for institutional investors, the report did not get much attention. GF Securities has a certain representation of the point of view, they believe that the second quarter need to focus on short-term risk factors are new from the old policy may be introduced and refinancing. Reform the current stock market value of more than 60%, new from the old policy, put a date to be getting closer.
The medium and long term, new from the old stock will inject more quality companies, and thus positive on the market long-term development. But the short term, the introduction of a policy, the total market to go through a breaking-in period, the market likely to be a certain degree of shock.
Hot spring up all over to judge
Remarkably, despite the recent re-emergence on the market the "new 28 phenomenon", that is, a small amount of individual stocks rose sharply, pushing price is climbing, and most of the stocks or less, or even do anything, making retail investors "make money the index does not make money, "signs are everywhere. However, from the institutional investors in the market to determine hot spots in view of the future, in fact favored institutions is still a very broad field, and this can lead to positive expectations, the market will spring up all over hot topics in the broader market continuing rise in the provision of adequate power.
For example, the Shenyin Wanguo Securities believes that in April the market is expected to have a more stable market, policy environment, a new socialist countryside construction, the consumption tax adjustment, the new accounting standards promulgated, M & A subject worthy of attention. Among them, there are two types of hot companies will benefit from the new accounting standards: development costs, capitalization of such companies will benefit from the technology and innovation; borrowing costs could be capitalized to expand the scope of a long production cycle will benefit businesses in advanced manufacturing. In the M & A theme, the first category is institutional change-driven mergers and acquisitions, mainly including the reform of state-owned assets and the split share structure reform-driven mergers and acquisitions, such as the central integration of enterprise-driven wave of privatization, the restructuring of local state-owned listed companies, ST's share reform restructuring, etc.; the other is the intrinsic value-driven mergers and acquisitions, primarily for foreign mergers and acquisitions topics, such as general manufacturing, consumer goods, manufacturing, channels, resource-based industries.
GF Securities believes that there are several industries in the second quarter, a variety of topics of concern, such as mechanical equipment industry may be concerned about the driving performance of technological upgrading for sustainable growth; information technology industry, tax-leading anti-counterfeiting technology sub-sectors have obvious advantages; non-ferrous metals industry, concerned about the aluminum industry recovery, medium-term bullish integrated company; hotels and tourism, the Olympic tourism drive around the corner, concerned about the quality assets of regional integration; characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine sub-brand industry, the company decided to increase stamina revaluation; food and beverage industry, on behalf of health food consumption in the direction; the real estate industry, housing, consumption, upgrade and enhance the survival of the fittest macro-control mechanism; highway industry, concerned about the road property acquisition and road network performance effects of growth factors; the chemical industry, MDI sub-sector into a new round of growth period; oil refining industry, the industry access system, and oil price reform constitutes a long-term positive.
