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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Weaknesses of human nature, including greed and fear, rational investment analysis is to help investors an important tool to overcome the weaknesses of human nature. Judge can not simply look at the stock market bubble and the accumulated stock index rose, but look at the average price-earnings ratio. Shanghai Stock Exchange data analysis: At the end of 2006 Shanghai stock market average price-earnings ratio 33.3 times the stock bubble in 2500 point to talk about metaphysics; now index above 3,600 points, Shanghai stock market average price-earnings ratio will jump across the 50 times. Therefore, according to price-earnings ratio can judge, index 2500 points at a reasonable valuation of the marginal zone with safety, while the index is above 3600 points, the need to control the risk of bubble area.
Investors will wonder, since the area is a bubble, why stock is also repeated Pan Xingao? Because the valuation judgments are often lag, by the end of 2000 climb up to the Shanghai stock market has been an average of 58.22 times earnings, but as late as June 26, 2001 before climbing to the 2245-point index peaked during March 2001, the Shanghai stock market in April The average price-earnings ratio is more than 60 times, can be seen from the collapse of the bubble to bubble for almost seven months. Therefore, the initial bubble stock index also showed a strong inertia record highs, but the stock volatility will increase, similar to "2.27", "4.19" unilateral volatility index will increase the frequency. Bottom-up stock picking strategy should rely on the value of stock picking.
From the long-term observation of the intrinsic value of the stock and stock index Change In fact, nothing to do with Buffett in 2000 about the Internet and IT stock bubble, but the rare Buffett talk about the stock market bubble because of Buffett's investment choices are familiar value stocks. Bubble area high price-earnings ratio the stock market as a whole, it is not the top down by sector, stock selection, while the value of growth should be based on bottom-up stock picking.
The stock market bubble burst, the two classes of shares had the largest decrease: first, the lack of popular support for the value of subject shares, and second, at the peak of the industry cycle, blue chip stocks. 1999 "5.19" Quotes after, there were a number of so-called Internet-related stocks Jieti speculation, but now largely become a thing; and in 1997 during the glory period of the home electrical appliance unit, but are still hovering in the industry, Sichuan Changhong cycle bottom. 3600 points, the top of the bubble zone, investors value stock selection should be subject to circumvent the high valuation of stocks and cyclical industry, blue chip stocks.
However, some stocks survive a bear market it was built, in 2001 bear market since the rise of Niugu have three categories: First, the assets into shares, the typical case is Hudong Heavy; Second, business innovation unit, the typical case is Suning Appliance; third business cycle trough, the typical case is Chihong Zinc and Germanium. Somewhat in the stock market frenzy of the stage, in order to calm those who have the mentality of the value of mining assets into growth stocks and the industry cycle, the bottom of underperformance as shares of stock to avoid the potential volatility. The more inflated the bubble period, the more stock-picking strategy to draw on the value of Buffett's strategy.
