Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-23
Recently, there are three companies in the stock price change in the secondary market, made a commitment. G agricultural major shareholder is willing to fully buy back at a fixed price; G Fuyao major shareholder is willing to share for a fixed price in order to compensate for the difference; silk is the largest shareholder is willing to share for a fixed price in order to compensate for the difference in cash.
This week, these three stocks, inter alia silk suspension, G Fuyao both agricultural and G sharp rise in agricultural products in which G rose 25%, G Fuyao rose 10%. The author believes that the market has started to pay attention to the impact of price undertaking for the stock price, but also began to consider corporate compound growth rate and the matching relationship between the price-earnings ratio, or at least shows that the market shares of stocks on the effectiveness of the reform strengthened significantly. This is the logic of investment, when the investment behavior of investors have a strong logic, its investment risk factor would greatly reduced.
2003 Investment Logic: price contrast
2003, some investors use a fool investment laws, primarily invested in Baosteel, China Unicom, China Petroleum and blue chips, achieving higher returns. Under the situation at that time, despite the surface of investment-driven macro-factors, but the market itself, at that time dared to support the secondary market investors for these shares under the big note, or a simple investment logic. If the stock was worth 45 yuan ST money, then, Baosteel, China Unicom 23 yuan of money certainly too low. We call such an investment law shares contrast. Subsequently, ST stocks, depressed (33% average annual decline), while the blue chips rose marked.
2004 Investment Logic: PEG method
2004 to invest in new shares to investors in the core of a very high income, such as Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery, large business shares, Maotai, ZTE, Shanggangjixiang, Yunnanbaiyao and Changyu and so on. What happened was that these new core units with the blue chips are basically the same price-earnings ratio. Taking into account the blue chips, the average growth rate of GDP growth may be considerable, and the new shares, the average performance of the core growth is likely to be at 20% or even 30%. Clearly, the 10% growth and 20% growth vary considerably, their evaluation can not follow the same price-earnings ratio. Therefore, this logic is clearly underestimated the new core unit more than doubled. Now, these new units were achieving more than double the core of the proceeds from its operation of the logic of the simple fact that the PEG method, the stock price-earnings ratio should be with the company's long-term profit growth rate is consistent. Otherwise, the market is not efficient, non-efficient market will contain a huge investment opportunities.
2005 Investment Logic: send the value of share reform
After the share reform launched in 2005, the market has dropped 1,000 points. When people judge sent to change the number of shares, stock or how much; Therefore, the stock did not change the value of the price to pay. This is clearly wrong logic: First, the units of the stock's intrinsic value is constant, and it stems from the company's future cash flows discounted cumulative value. Therefore, it basically has nothing to do with the secondary market; Second, the vast majority share reform of listed companies paid a 30% stake, therefore, in theory, the value of shares held by shareholders in circulation increased by 30%.
Sent the value of the stock and the logic of reform, investors are simply dominant enterprises can continue to hold the stock, they can get stock sent the value of incremental reform. We see Shanggangjixiang, ZTE, Yunnanbaiyao share reform has still maintained after 24 times price-earnings ratio of about 30% of the pairs of fully reflected in stock prices on the rise.
2006: bull market investment is also talk about the logic
In 2006, stock change, exchange rate reform led to A-share market in the following the bull market in 2005 and entered the validation phase reversal. We believe that the bull market investment pay attention to logic, otherwise the investment is no longer of investment, but will be included in the ranks of speculation. The author believes that investors were now keen on a few stocks non-ferrous resources stocks, could fall into erroneous speculation. Non-ferrous metals corporate profits, to a large extent depend on product prices, while product prices is not easy to grasp. Non-ferrous metals prices higher in the current context of strong, indeed, some companies will get better benefits in the future, but: 1. The product price increases triggered by corporate earnings growth, the lack of long-term nature; 2. Not all non-ferrous metals category companies can benefit from the product price increases. As part of the company in 2005 because of hedging measures to make the benefits of higher product prices have been substantially eroded. Therefore, the current recovery substantially higher non-ferrous metal stocks may lack the rigorous logic of investment.
From past experience, pursuit of hot plate is often a lack of investment logic, and the popular board, popular companies, often there is a big opportunity. Judging from the current situation, the valuation mismatch exists between the level of profit growth the industry has three, science and technology, media stocks, retail stocks and telecommunications stocks (including communications services and communications equipment manufacturing); In contrast, there is currently undervalued equity orientation has four categories: financial stocks, medicine and health care stocks, consumer goods and utilities stocks. Obviously, companies underestimate the advantages of the industry has a strong investment value, but also followed a strict logic of the principles of investment.
