Bull market of new shares under the subscription strategy Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-29

â–?Nanjing Securities Pershing SUN

IPO after the Spring Festival holiday has started, the review in 2006, IPO investors in the stock market is undoubtedly placed in front of a gluttonous feast, 70 new shares led to 12.84 trillion yuan of subscription funds, up to 80.19 times over-subscribed . We estimated that with 10 billion yuan of funds according to "net a priority" principle, participate in purchase of new shares in 2006, available 17.50% of the annualized rate of return. Through empirical research we have come to the conclusion that: In the bull market, to adopt a "net under the priority" of the subscription strategy is better than under the net purchase involvement, participation in large-cap stocks than small-cap stock purchase requisitions.

We generally use Σ (listed on the first day of average premium rates * The success rate) formula to calculate the yield level of subscription of new shares, but IPO in 2006, taking into account the arrangements are too dense, the limited size of funds is difficult to participate in all types of purchase, so a simple all the new shares plus the total rate of return clearly can not reflect the actual earnings. To get closer to the actual purchase of new shares in 2006 yield data, we assume that 10 billion on the scale of potential scenarios, the rules of the order by issuing new shares subscription, on-line in the ballot listed on the first day of new shares by average throw, net in the ballot under the new shares by the first day of thawing average throw, hold shares by December 29 the market value of average price calculations. The results showed that: If the participation of 10 billion yuan respectively, under the net, online purchase, then the rate of return during the period were 27.82%, 5.31%, annualized yield of 16.22%, 3.10%; if the 10 billion yuan of funds by "under the net first "principle, the same time participate under the net, online purchase, then the yield of 30% during the period, up to an annualized yield of 17.50%. As can be seen on the one hand, the net much better than the next purchase online purchase, the net rate of return under the purchase online subscription rate of return of about 5 times. On the other hand, in order to "net a priority" principle and also participates in under the net, online purchase slightly better than the simple purchase to participate under the net, our analysis mainly due to IPO Jihuan uneven rhythm, simple participation in offline purchase will lead to part of the funds bye. Meanwhile, we conclude that through the calculation: In the bull market, the network super-large-cap stocks in the ballot under the freezing of funds in 3-month earnings more than take part in online purchase of other shares of the opportunity cost. The reason is that this part of the Successful throughout the freezing of funds involved in the secondary market up process, but the purchase has not only made money Takong bull market, and because the Internet in a very low success rate, it is difficult to improve yields.

In addition, we will issue new shares in 2006 to raise funds in accordance with the scale of distribution is divided into small-cap stocks ( "one billion yuan), mid-cap stocks (1 billion yuan -100 billion), large-cap stocks (" 10 billion yuan), to the arithmetic average method optimized to produce purchase yield curve, the results show: First, purchase of large capitalization stocks yields into the bull market has gradually uplift, such as by the Bank of China, China Life rose 0.47% to 2.16%, and far higher than the small disk unit yield level. Second, the mid-cap stocks yields 0.21% -0.88% range of fluctuation, rates of return higher than the level of small-cap stocks, and the high rate of return is generally appear in two intervals of large capitalization stocks issued medium-term. Third, the small-cap stocks in general the rate of return 0.13% -0.50% range of fluctuation, but in a few large-cap stocks trading days before and after release are often overstating the sudden, such as the release date close to the China Life Insurance Co., Nobutaka subscription rate of return as high as 1.19%. The above analysis, to maximize revenue from the purchase point of view, we recommend purchase priority to participate in large-cap stocks, large-cap stocks subprime concerned about the distribution interval of the mid-cap shares issued for the proposed small-cap stocks chosen to participate in the vicinity of large-cap stocks subscription issue date .