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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Some friends in the foreign currency exchange analysis of China is very set, regardless of fundamentals, technical side has its own insights, but their operating performance is often unsatisfactory. One reason is that the timing of open interest is almost always wrong, or premature liquidation, there is no access to the subsequent windfall profits; or is the delay in liquidation, so that the final Quotes point back to buy from, and even stuck. Shows a good grasp of liquidation is a very important time to master.
"High-throw Law" and "sub-top unwinding Law"
Investors are hoping there is a way, a panacea, such as technical analysis of a target, once the index has reached a certain value, the open positions can be accurate. Unfortunately, however, is by far no such technical indicators. In fact, so long as the pursuit of precision points, methods of course. This issue we introduce "high-throw Law" and "sub-top open interest" system can achieve the right open positions, but not exactly open positions.
The so-called "high-throwing Act" means the money is buying the currency, the currency has given this good a set profit target price. Once the exchange rate to achieve this goal, investors unwinding. In general, the use of this investment strategy, investors are mostly used to cover the monetary fundamentals and technical analysis, such as the golden section line, the average line, shape, etc. to determine a reasonable target price, then wait for money to achieve this a target price immediately liquidated.
"Sub-top unwinding Law" is not pre-set itself a target price, but the position until it has been read the second time the exchange rate shows signs of peaking when thrown. In general, the adoption of this liquidation strategy, investors usually used in technical analysis to determine signs of peaking, mainly from currency movements to determine the patterns and trends. Specifically, through the double top, head and shoulders top, triple top head of the establishment to determine the medium-term, decisive liquidation.
Take the recent example of Quotes: August 8 this year, due to the Bank of England unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points, a strong British pound rose to 1.9144, and hit a new high this year. Pounds can not determine whether there is still room to rise, we adopt the strategy of wait and see position. Subsequently Quotes of adjustment, September 4 pounds again ascribed to 1.9081, from September 2 to September 4, 3 consecutive days unable to rise, so we use "sub-top unwinding Law" decisive departure to avoid the subsequent nearly 300-point drop in the loss.
Combination of the two laws better
Whether it is "high-throwing Act" or "sub-top unwinding Law", can be made good investment results. The world, many successful investors and fund managers are using one of the methods. But no matter which method is used, have their own shortcomings. About the use of "high-throwing Act" investors who must first master a set of the host country's economic fundamentals of monetary analysis method, investors set the target level will certainly be higher than its current market price. So, unless you do in the foreign exchange market has its own unique, otherwise set a price target may be more dangerous.
As for the use of "sub-top-open positions-out method," investors are mainly based on the exchange rate to determine the trend and does not pre-set itself a target price. Of course, shortcomings are evident, which requires investors must invest more time and energy to stare plate. This is why some people worked very hard to study what is "true-top" and what is "false top", so as not to be fooled.
The author believes that combining the two approaches would be better to use some, so that more rational unwinding. When the exchange rate to reach the goals set price to buy at the beginning, when, it should be liquidated immediately. Because investors in the target fixed price, the total has its own reasons, began to set the target level, the general also more rational. When the exchange rate rising, most people's minds began to heat. In order to avoid mistakes, the best time is still unwinding. Investors, after liquidation may be the exchange rate will also rise, which can only say that investors, misjudgments, rather than as investors reason for over-heated. Quotes really continue to rise if there is room for it should have the courage to buy again, but this is yet another a new operation, to re-set a target position rationally, rather than by a list before the impact.
