Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-23
To maintain substantial growth in 2006 earnings forecast of year
2006 twin mushroom ordinary domestic price is still 2.5-2.8 yuan / jin, although somewhat lower than the 05-year highs, but a normal year 1.6-1.8 yuan / jin, compared to the level is still at a high level, indicating the destruction of domestic twin mushroom planting environment is still in the recovery process.预计公司06年食用菌销量接?万吨，同比略有下滑，其中鲜销品数量约?0％，而在加工品中附加值较高的?干品比重仍不?0％? As of the end of 2006, the U.S. market, shipments of less than 100 containers (single cabinet volume is about 15 tons), indicating that the U.S. market is still in the recovery of start-up phase. But, because of the impact of sales price increase year on year, the company mushroom business sales rebound sharply year on year gross margin levels, especially in the second half of 2006. Therefore, we expect full year sales will be up despite a decline in (mainly affected by the decline in other operating income), but the profit of up to 6000 million yuan, an increase of 36%.
Earnings growth in 2007 depends on the implementation process of issuance of
Still in the recovery process of the raw materials supply market and the continued high price of raw materials makes the company invest its funds by issuing their own raw material bases of the need to increase, if the private placement at the end of June 2007 can be successfully completed before the , then the company's 2007 sales are expected to exceed 5 Mushroom Business tons, of which the U.S. market, exports are expected to challenge 15,000 tons, but also improve the quality of their own raw material base and raw material cost reductions will help the company main business profitability and further enhance the , making a profit year on year in 2007 to continue to grow substantially. However, we remind the market, due to the progress of the approval process related to the uncertainty, the company in 2007 prior to the possibility of successful completion of the refinancing, and in 2007 continue to achieve substantial growth year on year profits are still variable, although we believe that the company's performance does not affect the long-term growth prospects.
To maintain "prudent recommendation" investment rating
Currently we maintain the company's 06-08 years of sales and profit forecasts, taking into account the market valuation is awash with liquidity led to raise the level of fact, we lowered the rate of DCF model, the risk premium assumption to 6.0%, the resultant company's 07 year-end target price of 6.85 yuan, the corresponding two-year projected price-earnings ratio of 07,08 levels were 21.7 times and 16.3 times. With 2.4% dividend yield expectations, we maintain "prudent recommendation" investment rating.
