Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-22
Investment Highlights:
The company in 2006, 2007, the pharmaceutical industry are all part of the revenue and net profits to maintain single-digit growth.
Commercial portion of medicine from 2006 consolidated statements, although the company generate revenue growth of about 70%, but negligible contribution to net profit. Therefore, the judgments the company's growth remained concentrated in the growth of company's main products.
CSDP expect to continue to maintain steady growth. CSDP 2005 sales of about 8.3 billion, in 2006 nearly 9 billion, less than 10% growth. In 2007 is estimated to continue to maintain this growth rate. As product sales terminals in their own hands, so in 2006 a 5% Fandian no effect on the company's product sales. 2007 CSDP will increase urban and rural areas to adapt to the new specifications of plates in order to increase the sales of urban and rural sections. In addition, the product is applying for price increases, the end result is hard to expect.
Yangxueqingnao granular products rich in steady growth. Yangxueqingnao grain sales in 2006 about 1.7 billion, similar to 2005, did not meet growth expectations. In 2007 the product will be in 2006, on the basis of steady growth. Violations in 2007 closed, its negative effects will end.
The new formulations listed Yangxueqingnao pellets would be a useful complement to the product line.
SFDA drug approval to continue their policy implications, it is estimated Sal powder for injection in the second half of this year was the earliest approval.
Will benefit from the national health policy reform. From the Community Hospital of Beijing to see the results of the tender, the company's CSDP, the raising of serum brain particles and Bupleurum Pills are an exclusive bid. With the strengthening of community health, Tasly a national health reform will also be one of the beneficiaries.
Expected for 2007, 2008, EPS were 0.80 yuan and 0.87 yuan, PE, respectively 28 and 26 times. We believe that with the deepening of the national medical reform, the level of benefit Tasly will be strengthened, so that there will be revised upward its performance potential, therefore, is still maintained its "overweight" investment rating.
The company in 2006, 2007, the pharmaceutical industry are all part of the revenue and net profits to maintain single-digit growth.
Commercial portion of medicine from 2006 consolidated statements, although the company generate revenue growth of about 70%, but negligible contribution to net profit. Therefore, the judgments the company's growth remained concentrated in the growth of company's main products.
CSDP: steady growth
CSDP expect to continue to maintain steady growth. CSDP 2005 sales of about 8.3 billion, in 2006 nearly 9 billion, less than 10% growth. In 2007 is estimated to continue to maintain this growth rate.
At present, the CSDP hospitals, OTC sales of the proportion of urban and rural sections of 40%, 40%, 20%.
In 2006, the CSDP anti-commercial bribery in the context of maintained steady growth, primarily due to two aspects:
The first company in the first half of 2006 lifted 5% of the Fandian dealers, equivalent to the product ex-factory price increase in disguise. As the CSDP end market is dominated by sales staff to maintain their market demand is rigid, so that a disguised form of the product sales price increases did not form shocks.
Second, is the company's marketing strategy from the beginning of 2006 on the situation, according to industry has been adjusted to increase the sale of rural and urban sections, so the anti-commercial bribery, background, product sales was less affected. In 2007, the steady growth of the product In addition to continuing to increase urban and rural areas to promote the sales strategy, the growth may also be reflected in the following two aspects:
First, CSDP has received a new dose of 60 tablets drug approval, mainly for urban and rural markets.
Company CSDP packaging is 150 currently is priced at 23.7 yuan. 10 yuan is easily accepted by urban and rural markets price-sensitive position, so CSDP 60 tablets of the retail price at 10 yuan, urban and rural market more receptive.
Second, modern traditional Chinese medicine from the protection of intellectual property rights, R & D investment point of view, CSDP are applying for price increases. Rise will be less than 10%. From January 23 this year, the State Development and Reform Commission on the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicines price reductions directory we can see that Tasly the CSDP has not been price cuts. Currently, the company is applying for price increases, the likelihood of success is hard to expect. However, if successful, will contribute to the growth in product sales.
In addition, the CSDP of the FDA's Phase II clinical progress, it is estimated there may be the end of 2007 preliminary results.
Yangxueqingnao particles: product line rich, steady growth
Yangxueqingnao grain sales in 2006 about 1.7 billion, similar to 2005, did not meet growth expectations. In 2007 the product will be in 2006, on the basis of steady growth.
In 2006, two factors increase Yangxueqingnao particles have a negative impact: First, the industry's anti-commercial bribery policies. Second Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Dongguan million into infringing products Tasly the impact of Yangxueqingnao particles.
At present, violations have been closed, therefore, in 2007 this area will eliminate the negative impact. In addition, the update Yangxueqingnao particle formulations Yangxueqingnao pellets was in July 2006 to get new drug certificate, from 2007 began to market. The product is obviously superior to the taste Yangxueqingnao particles, particle formulation is a useful addition. As Yangxueqingnao particles in hospitals and OTC markets, the proportion of each 50%, so Yangxueqingnao markets of pellets from the start with the hospital market.
Other products remained stable
Other products, such as Jing Hua Wei Kang particles, water, Chia, Patchouli upright pills, such as andrographolide million in annual sales stabilized at between 2000-4000.
Investment in the company in 2006, biopharmaceutical company, equity 55%, the main products subunit influenza vaccines have entered clinical phase I. We are optimistic estimate of the product may be available in 2008, specifically the need dynamic tracking of progress.
Drug approval: After a major environmental impact
Qi Fumai respectively in November 2006 and December to get new drug certificate and production approval. GMP certification in progress to obtain GMP certification (about 2 months time), you can put into production and sales.
Houttuynia cordata injection in 2006 because of the disabled, the entire market for traditional Chinese medicine injection had a negative impact, especially water injection type. Tasly product is freeze-dried formulations, it is possible the water in the Chinese medicine market space needle left in place.
In addition, Dan acid powder for injection, freeze-dried astragalus, ginkgo extract, human recombinant pro-urokinase SFDA for approval are still waiting and their own R & D process. SFDA drug approval is estimated that the re-start in the first half of this year, after the end of the flight inspection. Therefore, it is estimated Sal powder for injection drug approval obtained as early as the second half of 2007.
Will benefit from the national health policy reform
From the Community Hospital of Beijing to see the results of the tender, the company's CSDP, the raising of serum brain particles and Bupleurum Pills are an exclusive bid. With the strengthening of community health, Tasly a national health reform will also be one of the beneficiaries.
Other issues
The new accounting standards: the issue of capital R & D expenses. In 2005, R & D costs 28 million yuan, in mid-2006 about 10 million yuan. In other words, the company R & D cost of about 2000-3000 million years. If the computing per 1,000 million of capital, then the EPS impact of about 0.035 yuan / share.
Turn solid in construction projects: powder production line investment, the current projects under construction in this part of the more than 100 million yuan. If the 10-year straight-line depreciation calculation, 100 million yuan depreciation of fixed assets 10 million yuan / year, converted into earnings per share 0.04 yuan.
Allocation: not yet determined. Institutional investors prefer to send transfer program.
Additional: 2000 million shares of the company's growth is almost complete.
Performance Prediction and Valuation
Expected for 2007, 2008, EPS were 0.80 yuan and 0.87 yuan, PE, respectively 28 and 26 times. We believe that with the deepening of the national medical reform, the level of benefit Tasly will be strengthened, so that there will be revised upward its performance potential, therefore, is still maintained its "overweight" investment rating.
