Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-05
First, the long-term bullish on the economy, medium-term (3 to 5 years) is not optimistic The main driving force of China's GDP growth from investment in fixed assets so far has been no fundamental change in this situation. Round of economic growth, exports on economic growth played a certain role, but investment is still played a major role. With the central government to strengthen the regulation of real estate and fixed asset investment, the impact of investment on economic growth gradually emerged out of a downward trend in economic growth is basically formed. Thus, although we have long-term growth of our economy are still good, but short-term growth in the economy, the situation is not optimistic.
Point of view on economic growth peaked, many people have already formed a relatively consistent views. However, the views of the economic adjustment time, we still have seen.
At present, most people believe that economic restructuring may be the end of the second half of next year, economic growth will return to upward track. Similarly, we believe that this view too optimistic. From the data perspective, 2004 was the culmination of corporate profit growth in 2005, may be the culmination of the total profits of enterprises. 2005 may be just the beginning of economic adjustment, adjust the time may be extended 3 to 5 years.
First of all, we believe that a large economy's growth or decline is not an overnight can be changed. Huge investment in fixed assets in recent years, the formation of new capacity will take time out and digest most of the over-supply of goods will re-enter the situation and the need to continue for some time.
Second, from a historical point of view, China, a major economic adjustment generally takes five years to complete.
Again, from the economic growth momentum to see that people have great expectations of the role of consumption on economic growth is still relatively limited. The next few years, in investment, consumption, exports of these three major economic growth point in the investment's contribution should be a downward trend in exports contributed most to maintain the status quo, it is difficult to improve. As a result, people are spending high hopes. Tax base increase in personal income tax, agricultural tax policy reforms, everyone with this. However, we believe that consumption growth also subject to the effects of declining economic growth rate, based on the current distribution of national wealth, a considerable period of time, consumption is difficult to become a major driving force of economic growth.
Thus, while we are confident in China's long-term economic growth prospects, but this also needs to adjust the situation to have a clear understanding. Under the current situation, the most important thing is the view of the trend of economic adjustment.
2, the overall profits may be negative growth in profits already indications of structural adjustment 2005 1 ~ in August from the industrial growth in corporate profits, look at the one hand, still on 80% of the industry profit growth in the state, the majority of investment goods industry still maintained a 20 percent profit growth rate, indicating the total profits of economic adjustment in the economic aspects of impact has not yet clearly demonstrated, their overall effectiveness is still the best level in recent years. On the other hand, the investment class is still fast-growing industry profits (50%) of the industry to continue to the most upstream industries (mainly for resource extractive industries) are concentrated, processing and type of investment goods industries, only non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, wood processing industry, fabricated metal products and a few other sectors are maintaining a relatively fast (30%) of the profit growth. Can be seen over the past two years, the formation of investment goods industry is still profitable continuation of the pattern. As the fixed asset investment is expected to decline significantly in 2006, we expect the profits of industrial enterprises in 2006 will show a decline.
However, the Change of profit growth in 2005, 1 August, the investment goods industry profit growth slowdown in growth in some industries there was a substantial decline year on year, while the food, textile and clothing industry profit growth to accelerate. In our study of 36 industrial sectors, the profit growth year on year increase of only 10 industries, accounting for 27.78% of the total industry; and profit growth fell in 26 industries, accounting for 72.22% of the total industry.
In 2006 the restructuring of corporate profits may be two start lines. A line is the profit has been growing rapidly, such as textiles, clothing, food industry profit growth was inertia to gradually change the investment goods industry, the past two years into a pattern of large profits; the other a line is a major event in 2006 is likely to occur so that some industries Profit growth in a turning point, such events may include energy prices, refined oil pricing mechanism reform, 3G and aerospace engineering major investment and so on. If such incidents occur, the related industry will have a significant impact, and accordingly form a market hot spots.
An expected price of crude oil dropped to 50 dollars / barrel, oil refining, aviation, urban public transport, plastics and other industries will significantly benefit from the
Crude oil prices fell from the two main ways to make the relevant benefit the industry. First, as an important energy source for oil chain impact on related industries. These industries include oil refining business, automotive, aviation, urban public transport and other industries; second, as an organic chemical raw materials, chemical fiber, plastics, tires, pesticides, electronic components and other production costs of downstream industries have a greater impact. A total of 2 1 [2]
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