Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-06-01
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: With the passage of time, liquidity tightening phase, static valuation of premium space, reduction in the second half of the overall performance of listed companies will grow weak, increasing the density of new shares issued to change the tape and other factors have tendency to run Yuelai the more obvious ......
As time goes by, liquidity tightening phase, static valuation of premium space, reduction in the second half of the overall performance of listed companies will grow weak, increasing the density of new stock issuance and other factors that change the tape run trend has become increasingly evident . We are Guangzhou Bandung network that, although compensatory growth from a technical analysis of the broader market is not over the top still continue to do shocks, the index also may be within a certain range and soaring highs. However, at this stage can not be taken lightly, it can not be confused by the trend surface of the index, in the short-term opportunities for warm and individual stocks that will be difficult to cover the advent of large-scale restructuring.
At present, promote the restructuring of stock reform, the overall market, the introduction of high-quality assets, issuing new shares as well as mid-year report focused on disclosure opportunity to bring some of the hot spots will become the main pillar of maintaining Quotes. With the future of disclosure of the gradual completion of approval, these factors will also dilute the market away from the adjustment will be getting closer.
A, liquidity tightening
With regard to the central bank's future monetary policy and liquidity tightening, we again mentioned in previous articles. The tendency of monetary policy tightening will be adjusted to neutral now is to confirm no doubt, although some time ago the direction of monetary policy, central bank officials knew little about the characterization, however, as the financial data came out, central bank governor's recent speeches already given monetary policy set the tone.
People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan on the 28th of this month, said in Basel, Switzerland, in order to achieve better economic structure, the central bank will make policy adjustments, but at the same time tighten monetary policy. Although he did not make a statement on whether to raise interest rates, but said that in the formulation of monetary policy before the close attention to economic data.
The central bank has control over the future of long-term loans as the main objective of monetary policy, low interest rate era will end.
We believe that, if it is to raise interest rates slightly, then the main impact will be is a highly sensitive money market interest rates, while the real estate industry, the regulation will lead to the temporary withdrawal of funds in this sector. Merely the case, but will result in the structural funds flow of funds on the stock market face more good than harm; however comprehensive crunch plus the direct contraction of money supply, then inevitably affect the entire capital market, the stock market is no exception. As the current stock market a lot of money from the banking system, bills discounting, the central bank to tighten monetary supply and check the bill discount will have a direct impact on this situation in part of the funds.
Outflow of bank funds market, pressure on the entire stock market funds face a bigger negative impact, coupled with periodic callback commodity futures to bring down the corresponding plate and become a major impetus for the market decline.
Second, the static valuation of premium space in the second half of the reduction and sluggish overall performance of listed companies
According to statistics, the overall valuation of listed companies, the current level has reached a static price-earnings ratio of around 30 times. Excluding a loss of powerful individual stocks, after the completion of share reform the overall valuation of G-Unit plate is about 23 times earnings or so. The static valuation levels, a listed company as a whole up space for insignificant.
[1] [2] Next Page
In addition, taking into account the second half of the macro-control effects of the factors that will be gradually revealed most of the sectors in the structural adjustment process, the listed company's overall performance growth can hardly be optimistic. According to the information broker evaluation, from the industry point of view, apart from construction machinery, iron and steel, pharmaceutical industry, some of the few sub-sectors such as industry, growth in the overall performance of listed companies in the second half of this year there will not be very good performance.
In the macro control and monetary tightening pressure, our second half performance of listed companies on the growth of a conservative attitude, and expect this situation to early next year in order to have a certain difference.
To sum up, based on valuation of listed companies, the current rise in the static space smaller and the performance of listed companies, growth in the next six months the situation is not optimistic, in the institutional reform and the excess liquidity-driven bull market in the end stage, we do not expect market Company valuation growth promoting Quotes situation. Moreover, with the tightening macro-control, and progressively put in place, some of the industry sales will be a certain degree of decline, which became another factor market adjustment.
3, issue new shares of intensive
IPO itself can not stand alone as to promote a major factor in changing the broader market trend, but it can be a turning point occurred after the broader market trend, to the main direction of the rapidly evolving catalyst. In the bull market phase, every issue of new shares will be regarded as additional scarce resources and high quality assets, a sought after goal of many competing funds; in tape callback stage, especially the issue of new shares will be the advent of high-density IPO expansion, the mainstream market funds have continued to withdraw more pressure will be formed.
We believe that with the split share structure reform, is nearing completion, and other reforms in the financial innovation under the pressure, issuing new shares expansion has become a high-level urgent task.
Accelerate the speed mainly due to IPO: The first is for economic development services and improve the financial markets move. The size of China's stock market and national economic development is extremely disproportionate allocation of resources and to raise financing function played by the effects of too small and the size of the market which are closely related. In addition, the small proportion of direct financing, bank loans, indirect financing large proportion of cases, but also on the current banking system is too heavy a burden, especially in the banking system, many problems of the circumstances. Second, currently the majority of foreign listed companies are a monopoly type of high-quality companies, combined with thickening of asset revaluation, this part of the overseas listed companies to foreign investors in fact bring rich rewards, and these high-quality dissipation of resources is the Commission do not want to see, by speeding up the listing of these enterprises in order to retain high-quality resources are also in line with the objectives of the SFC.
As the financial system reform, industrial restructuring, and other tasks in the WTO and under the pressure of external competition has become urgent, then the pace of development of the stock market must be able to keep up with the pace of these reforms. Therefore, from a certain extent, the pace of issuing new shares on the one hand look at the market will bear, on the other hand in turn depends on the country's overall progress of the reform. We believe that the pressure from the outside and the current share reform to complete the objective matter of fact, the new shares issued will be faster.
With the phasing out of the mainstream funds, rapid expansion of capital in the market will undoubtedly bring even worse side effects.
In summary, we believe that tightening liquidity caused by capital flight and performance of listed companies intensive growth slows and new shares issued will become the trend to change the tape to run a major factor in the market began to adjust its root causes.
Previous [1] [2]
