Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-04-21
Source: National Securities Author: Tang Zhen-Bin
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index sharply lower yesterday after the fast undershoot, the Shanghai Composite fell below the 2000-point mark an integer, but in iron and steel, finance, 3G, real estate, non-ferrous metals, food and beverages and other common plates, driven by broader market shock-day high, the two cities were closed out in Yang Xian, Shen Chengzhi another since May 1997 a new high since 9 years, successfully resolved the stock market crash right around the A-share market impact. Reversal of yesterday's market, sell into the energy market has fully demonstrated the limited funds eyeing separate ways, as long as a technical correction, that is, bargain-hunting Jiancang, indicating that the pattern of the bull market will continue.
Excess liquidity will continue to
Recently published data show signs of decline in the U.S. economy, continued weakness in the dollar, significantly speeding up the appreciation of the renminbi, has been a continuous break 7.85,7.84 yuan. In foreign trade and exports are still the main driver of China's economic development, and the yuan is not freely convertible in the context, the central bank base money put into a passive result of excess liquidity for the securities market provides a sufficient financial guarantees, the management was happy to excess money to the securities market, to develop direct financing.
10 at the end, China's yuan savings deposits dropped in 7.6 billion, is the first time since June 2001 appear decline in monthly savings deposits. Over the same period the consumer price index and the basic maintenance of the status quo, that the inhabitants, and no significant new revenue for consumption. In fact, most savings were diverted to the stock market, in October the stock market and fund a substantial increase in the number of new accounts, 10 at the end customer margin balances of securities companies reached 604.2 billion yuan, increased 216.1 billion yuan over the previous month, an increase of 182.9%.
And the curtain of the RMB revaluation has just opened, international investors were generally optimistic about China's securities market, 100 million QFII quota will soon be used up, the relevant government officials may consider the total QFII degree within one year expanded to 50 billion U.S. dollars . Under the guidance of the wealth effect, the insurance funds, pension funds, corporate annuities, large-scale state-owned funds, brokerage and asset management self-funding, as well as some divorced from the real economy, real estate and stock markets between private capital, will be continuously to flow into the stock market.
Back a space to develop into two
It is supported by sufficient funds, the broader market fear has been double the gains, a huge profit plate, overbought technical indicators, rapid expansion, "cardinal" "small non-" lifting of the ban such as multiple pressures and numerous a new high, showing a strong internal drive. Taking into account China's rapid economic growth and liquidity premium, institutional change premium, present, China's A share of the overall valuation level is still quite reasonable, some of the company's valuation is still low quality of domestic and foreign funds still has a great attraction force. It is foreseeable that the current round of Quotes is far from over, the market will be taken into the two back a steady upward climb of the ways to keep space to develop. Recently under the impact of external factors, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes appeared short-term adjustments to the technical part of the normal order. From the disk can be seen in banks and other broad-market index stocks such as poor performance in the mainstream varieties of circumstances, the Olympic Games, commerce, tourism, real estate and other sections took turns playing, will be maintained at a relatively high index for a strong finishing, in order to absorb a profit chips, repair, technical indicators, waiting for the market to stabilize around.
An active interest in five stocks
A very clear pattern in a bull market circumstances, investors should focus on selected stocks Jiancang, to avoid "make the index does not make money." The operation strategy can focus on the following points.
1, the blue chips still need to configure the strategic variety. However, the core blue-chip stocks have been rising continuously due to the recent, short-term or high, investors may focus on a traditional plate of some of the leading blue-chip stocks, such as electricity, coal, automobiles, ports, transportation, non-ferrous metals, in particular, those who have notice of the performance increased institutional clearly Masukura stocks.
2, in the long-term appreciation of the yuan process, the real estate as a relatively good liquidity yuan of assets, will surely be favored foreign investment, invest in real estate excess returns of listed companies will be. Quotes current real estate stocks have been in full swing, investors can focus on those who do not pre-or second-line real-estate stocks, especially the cap, lower explosive stronger.
3, bank stocks were also in appreciation of the yuan, one of the greatest benefit from the plate, much attention overseas capital in the Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland banks to obtain most of the valuation premium for bank shares rise in open space, banking stocks will continue to be in the future Quotes of the "leader" in recent days involved in the adjustment of a bargain-hunting opportunity.
4, there is policy support of the industry section, such as 3G, railways, independent innovation, energy saving and environmental protection and recycling economy.
5, often subject to financing concerns, there are significant inflows of funds signs of plate, easily lead to a rapid rise in market, such as science and technology of Internet stocks active in the near future.
