Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-12-27
Fundamental factors affecting supply and demand analysis is to analyze the relationship between the basic economic factors, is to study the causes of exchange rate movements, while technical analysis focus on the study of law is the way the exchange rate movements, technical analysis holds that, all the underlying factors are reflected in the prices of all or part of on the trend, while for the analysis of the chart has really accumulated and performance information on the actual supply and demand, reflecting the traders happiness, anger, sadness and joy, hope, mental activities, such as estimates and speculation. Therefore, today, traders chart analysis is far too important.
Early research tools of technical analysis is the chart, the chart analysis is the use of the so-called record prices, charts, research on market forces, and thus determine the future direction of the price of this approach in the international community has a long history. Technical analysis of the latest development is the basis of the traditional chart analysis of the increased number of quantitative methods, people use mathematical methods to design different forms of equations to assess the strength of market price movements to measure the price trends. With the popularity of modern computer technology and in-depth, quantitative analysis of an increasing emphasis on Beishou technical analysis of the status and develop into a significant faction.
Chart analysis, the main function is to changes in market prices over the past systematically recorded. With histogram, for example, the chart data has the highest daily transaction price, the lowest and closing price. Painting is this: In a longitudinal coordinates of the exchange rate as the time for the horizontal coordinates of the map, the maximum price and the lowest two-point connections into a vertical, vertical line drawn on the closing price of the corresponding point. Day after day on the plots form a jagged pattern of varying Jiagezoushitu.
Draw the histogram with the same principles can be a weekly charts, monthly charts, and even a few years or more charts. The face of a sheet, the market price charts, people often ask, history will repeat itself as the chart on the pricing model will reproduce? The answer is yes, technical analysts to chart classification of various forms and found that the chart often striking similarities. They pointed out that the chart is tantamount to research study of human psychology and the psychological change model, with these models will be able to determine market sentiment in the past to predict the future exchange rate prices.
Initially applied to the stock market chart analysis. Technical analysts believe that as long as stock prices determined solely by supply and demand theory, it is bound to a similar market sentiment, whether it is commodity trading or stock trading, foreign exchange trading, will have a similar chart patterns. That is why the chart analysis will soon be applied to futures trading and foreign exchange transactions on the reasons. Technical analysis and fundamental factor analysis What's the relationship? For technical analysis, there have always been a different attitude, some people think that profound and inscrutable, prohibitive; others rely entirely on the chart, that universal; people do not believe in charts, only believe that the basic factor analysis . In fact, the majority of the foreign exchange market traders feel should be the basic factor analysis and technical analysis together.
In fact, the market exchange rates in the final analysis, is to follow the basic elements, the U.S. dollar against major currencies, changes in the history clearly illustrates this point. However, in many cases it is difficult to explain the basic elements of the U.S. dollar exchange rate movements, we must chart the help of technical analysis. Optimistic that economic fundamentals alone, ignoring the practice of technical analysis charts, often judging errors at the expense fooled. For example, when you see a very good U.S. economic data released on the purchase of U.S. dollars, poor economic figures on the practice of selling U.S. dollars, often hit a snag. Market, often such a situation, the euro zone economic figures good, but technically in the chart, the euro is having a significant downward trend, when people simply ignore these figures, features a move to sell the euro, the role of supply and demand makes the euro The more severe or more. On the contrary, sometimes poor U.S. economic data released, but the dollar found support for Chart technical point, prompting a large number of purchase, the dollar rise not fall. Of course, the kind of look the chart, regardless of the practice of economic factors on the market out there, but also no shortage of winners. However, many senior white traders believe that a combination of both, complementary forecasting exchange rates is best.
Chart technical analysis, there are two basic types: histogram table and the points chart. Two kinds of charts production, the required information is the highest daily transaction price, the lowest and closing price, the tool is a pen, a ruler, a drawing.
Histogram table analysis
1, histogram table drawing method
A typical histogram table, longitudinal coordinates the exchange rate, horizontal coordinate is time. First, the exchange rate at the time and find the intersection point of the day high and low, connect high and low into a vertical line. The closing price of the corresponding point in the vertical line to the right to draw a short horizontal said. As time goes on, every day in the corresponding time coordinates to draw columnar line, day after day, it constitutes a jagged, undulating histogram. Time interval histogram indexing can be a daily, weekly or every time-division-degree indexing.
Second, histogram analysis of exchange rate movements on the table in the role of
(A) the trend line of the role of painting and Analysis
1. Tend to line painting
Histogram to record the changes in exchange rates, providing exchange rate to market forces react to the continuous scenarios, analysis chart was designed to determine the changes in exchange rate trends and the time required.
People know nothing more than changes in the exchange rate rise, fall and stop at the same level of three. If the exchange rate rise, said the overwhelming power of buyers sellers gained the upper hand. If the dollar exchange rate in some level of the upper and lower repetition, said the selling pressure on purchasing power roughly equal to the formation of dense area on the chart, showing market price of cowhide. If the exchange rate down, said the selling pressure is more than purchasing power.
The rise in the price of a currency trend and downward trend in prices from the connection point of the highest and lowest posed by the judge out of line. Painting is to two or more lowest point in the exchange rate link up to form a straight line known as the trend line. The exchange rate of two or more connected together to form the highest point of the straight line, called the decline in trend line. Rising or falling trend line trend line the more points, the higher its reliability. With the exchange rate of development in a certain period of time, the original draw trend lines, over a period of time, then it can allocate a new trend lines, and even set aside a number of trend lines, as shown below. The effect of trend line trend line connection from the point to judge, point more towards the nature of the more reliable.
2. Trend-line analysis of the role of
(l) tend to line up: also known as the greenback fell to support line.
Why do I say to connect the lowest point is an increase in the exchange rate trend line? Because the lowest point of the straight line connecting the price of all transactions to support the top of the line, those with a V dollar, rising like waves, one wave after wave; while the downturn Each fall, the total does not break down this line, so we say it is the decline in support line. As long as the exchange rate does not penetrate down this line, even at the lowest point fall on a straight line, on an upward trend in the exchange rate will not change. On the contrary, the lowest point on the line to increase the more the higher the effect of the trend line.
(2) decreased trend line: also known as the exchange rate increased resistance. Why do I say to connect the exchange rate of the highest point of the line is a down trend line? Because the straight line connecting the highest point of the entire trading price pressure in the line at the bottom. The exchange rate together with a V, like falling waves, a wave less than a wave. During repeated attempts to rise in dropped D point, briefly rebounded to C point, but still the highest price increases instead of breaking this slash, obviously the more the trend of the exchange rate fell lower and lower. Therefore, the decline in trend line is also known as counter-pressure line; idea was to suppress the rebound rise in the exchange rate can not exceed and breakthroughs. Unable to break down as long as the exchange rate trend line, we say the downward trend has not changed.
(3) the reliability of trend-line
The reliability of the first principle, the purpose of drawing trend lines first and foremost be clear trend in market conditions. In fact, the exchange rate of the rise and fall not on the 1st and the end, we can increase or decrease in the exchange rate as a "journey." Exchange rate in terms of rise or fall trip, always there are many repeated. The reason is simple, in many cases of exchange rate changes, people will buy low and flat profits, selling pressure on the ensuing, the buyer power suppressed. On the contrary, the exchange rate down a lot, the high-priced short-selling of these people will be in the low-cost flat plate when a profit. Chung buying then come home to put the power suppressed. As noted above, tend to line up more points, which means support is stronger; down trend line the more points, which means the larger anti-stress, in a word, the higher the reliability.
The second principle is that trend lines across the longer, higher reliability, greater effectiveness. As time goes on, tend to line is to constantly re-drawing of the. As shown below, if after six months, the exchange rate after a few waves rise, drew a connection point of the rise in trend line AB. Six months at the end of the exchange rate that is below a rising trend line support line, downward slide. In the ensuing 10 days, the market fluctuated, reaching a low of C. After a decline in the market no new, we temporarily can be connected to A, C are two points to form a new trend can be unified on this trend line support for the role of the exchange rate down, of course, is more effective than the AB Line, that is, in the future the repeated, in the exchange rate falling to below than the AC line, the opportunity is much less chance to fall below the line AB. Later, the exchange rate continued to fall, has been dropped to D point. D-line connection point into the AD. In fact, the arrival point D, the dollar rebounded to E-point before falling back, however, because from point A to D point after almost a year's time, that is, AD line is experiencing a year of time to draw the case, below the AD-line than below the AC line, the opportunity to become even more smaller.
(4) trend line break
The purpose of drawing trend lines, the first is to determine the end of a trend or a new trend, capturing the timing of buying or selling. The second is to determine the time positions in order to capture huge profits. According to the old trend of increasingly asked to determine the end line and the beginning of a new trend, mainly rely on observation of broken-line signal. Broken line refers to the exchange rate trend Q line break to the original trend in the opposite direction.
(5) buy signal and sell signal
As shown below, the increase in a long trip, the exchange rate upward again, and finally dropped below a rising trend line. Support the line C is sell signal that the end of an upward trend slightly downward trend in the beginning. In contrast, in a long decline in travel, the exchange rate fell again and finally turned up to break down upward trend line resistance point of line B is the buy signal.
(6) the use of trend lines to capture opportunities to buy and sell
In practice, trading, breaking the line to buy one time is important, but that is a trend change, to go through a longer period of time to occur. However, the help of trend lines, people can also capture some other people to buy, sell time.
Buying opportunity
We know that the exchange rate will be affected by various factors and down repeatedly. In a rising trend, probably because of some sudden political and economic news, or profit-taking, market nosedive. But in an up or down before the end of travel is not often in the exchange rate fell by nearly a support line, there are a large number of buying leads to the base plate to hold up the exchange rate, smart technology will be funded by the timing of entry to seize goods. More adventurous investors, the exchange rate will also fall close to but did not reach the support line when the market early, for fear can not buy a bargain. To capture such opportunities, often at high profit margins. Of course, if the exchange rate does not reach the support line is not only rebound, but below the support line, which should be decisively liquidate, "turned turned their guns" to join the ranks of sell-off.
Time to sell
By the same token, in a declining trend, down trend line can provide the best time to sell, please refer to the above the reader their own inference.
(7) positions
Trend line can also be applied to determine positions of time. Position, the investment is a common behavior. Investors buy a currency, if the confidence of the exchange rate would be waiting for an opportunity to sell temporarily. On the contrary, after the sale of a currency if the exchange rate fell confident, he would wait for opportunity to buy back the temporarily flat plate. Uneven plate to extend or renew the behavior of profits, known as positions. In the long-term investors tend to do so, in order to capture the huge profits. Positions may be longer or shorter duration, trend-line is that they have decided to position an important basis for the time.
