Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-08-01
Is expected to rise in power, in essence belongs to the building Quotes level of the main driving force - stock reform and the revaluation of the continuation and complement the end of a certain nature, while the Olympics, the theme of underperformance shares reorganization and compensatory growth began to hype prevalent.
China Merchants Securities A-share market investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2006,
17 held in China Merchants Securities added 21 fourth-quarter sales department celebration-cum-investment strategy report at the meeting, China Merchants Bank Securities research analyst with the investment strategy researcher Jian-Xing Zhao said that the current A-share market's overall valuation is basically rational, vertical comparison is still at a historic bottom of the listed company's profit growth recovery will be a strong impetus to the further development of the bull market, the overall market and asset injection concept, will be the share reform after the stock market another feast.
Demographic dividend-driven Chinese economy into the next decade, the Golden Age Jian-Xing Zhao analysis, macroeconomic regulation and control to gradually return to potential growth rate, strong growth of aggregate demand and raise the level of macro-control will enable the Chinese economy from the cyclical fluctuations inherent in the model, so as to establish high-speed steady growth trend.
The next 5-10 years will be China's population structure is most conducive to economic growth periods: the baby boom population entering the peak consumption period, so that investment spending as economic growth gradually replace the main driving factors; new generation of people into new heights period, so that technological progress on economic growth increasingly prominent role in promoting.
At the same time, sustained a mild adjustment to make a quick recovery to the economy is gradually return to potential growth rate, and, as the control means further matures, smoothing the economic cycle, reducing systemic risk, enhancing the valuation of the asset.
Resumed positive growth trend in earnings of listed companies, a strong impetus to the bull market Jian-Xing Zhao said that the share reform of listed companies tend to come out after the resumption of growth trends, a change in the deviation from the average growth trend of social status; the next two to three years, the listed company's profit growth will not fall below the community average.
For some time, listed companies profit margins are one level down, and thus brought about a series of problems and bad effects, listed companies should have a leader within the industry. At present, the leader's role is gradually being restored.
Among them, resource-profit sector is still focused on the direction, but the pattern of distribution of profits began to benefit downstream industries, services, consumer, technology, types of trades that profit growth was rapid.
Valuation: At present, basically rational and not overvalued "Vertical comparison in the history of the bottom of the blue-chip horizontal comparison and reasonable valuations." Jian-Xing Zhao said: "At present, the overall valuation of A shares rather than overestimate the level of basic and reasonable, Sinopec's share reform will further reduce the valuation of the overall market and asset injection, and achievements Poor stock restructuring will significantly improve the performance of listed companies, and lower overall valuation levels. "
Jian-Xing Zhao said: "The long term trend in China to enhance the valuation of assets will continue, and the speed will accelerate the medium term, may be subject to continued strong expansion pressure."
A-share market will be accompanied by a large expansion era of the process of China's capital assets, the arrival of China's current assets in the A-share market capitalization rate is also very small, A-share market will be China's equity capital of the first choice, with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , China Life, China Mobile, China's oil companies such as landed, the market value of A is expected to rise 2-3 times within three years to 15 trillion, 10-year increased by 10 times to 40 trillion. "But the underlying asset demand, expansion of any size sufficient to absorb the pressure," Jian-Xing Zhao believes that expansion of supply of quality assets, spread portfolio risk, improve asset valuation.
The overall market and asset injection: Shares reform after another feast Jian-Xing Zhao said that the overall market and asset flows into a large-scale securitization of assets is an important way of involving a large-scale property transactions and a large number of listed companies, which is expected to become China's equity capital with the IPO process is equally important way. Are expected to have half of the 1-2 trillion in market value of listed companies to accept the assets into the same scale.
By 10% -20% of the purchase price discount is estimated that 1-2 trillion in assets, the size of the potential benefits arising from the acquisition is expected to reach 200 billion or so, medium and small shareholders are expected to share 50% of the earnings-related companies will have direct access to 10 % of the market value of upgrading.
The overall market and asset injection can achieve scale expansion, industry consolidation and solve related-party transactions, improve corporate governance and other effects, is also a major shareholder equity value maximization goal is all about. Stock reform ultimately prove a win-win game, because the process of asset securitization proceeds to make the flow of power can achieve win-win situation, medium and small shareholders will eventually find that it can inject a whole and assets to get substantial benefits.
A-share market in the fourth quarter to run Trend Forecast Jian-Xing Zhao analysts believe that the balance of the long-term bull market into the phase oscillation pattern, the adjustment is limited, the impact of regulation and continued expansion, the low point has been proven, but the adjustment time may not have sufficient structural adjustment will continue. The financial, real estate and the overall market as represented by some of the items have been first started, the year the stock market is expected to hit a new high, highly depends on a strong catalyst occurs.
Zhao believes that investors should insist on thinking of the bull market confidence and the bull market, and every time adjustment is a buying opportunity, and resolutely to invest in China tenbagger, at the same time, he can be expected that the rise in power, in essence belongs to the building Quotes level of the main driving force -- - stock reform and the revaluation of the continuation and complement the end of a certain nature, while the Olympics, the theme of underperformance shares reorganization speculation and compensatory growth become popular.
For investors, banks and real estate sectors will continue to further revaluation, the overall market and asset injection will be another after the share reform investment feast.
