Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-09-20
1, 2006 Operational Data Analysis:
Passenger areas: passenger capacity in 2006 put considerable caution, annual passenger traffic growth in the number of kilometers can be used by 12.3% to 79.4 billion passenger kilometers. In 2006 the company's actual completion of 60.3 billion passenger kilometers charge, an increase of 14.9%, of which domestic, regional and international routes rose by 14.6%, 13% and 16%; domestic routes are basically normal, traffic growth is basically close to 15% of the entire industry the level of growth, while better than the China Southern Airlines and Shanghai Airlines and other airlines listed on the general level of growth; regional airline growth, especially in the second half of 2006, with the cooperation between Air China and Cathay Pacific, Air China flight control efforts in the region greatly enhanced, improve load factor is very obvious; international routes, growth also exceeded the industry average. 2006 Air China's domestic, regional and international routes respectively, of total passenger turnover ratio of passenger turnover of 55%, 3% and 42%, the basic realization of internal and external equal weight fly with both wings. In 2006 load factor continued to increase, driven by demand growth in aviation, 2006 load factor increased by 2.3% to 76%, broadly in line with pre-judgment. Cargo: 2006 Air China Cargo poor state of development, the overall cargo and mail load factor in April 2006 from the beginning of each month over the same period was lower than 2005 levels; the same time, we can see from the beginning in April 2006, Air China Cargo capacity growth fast 4-December single month the number of available AFTK grew more than 20% capacity will take time, as well as business operations running to digest. With the establishment of Air China and Cathay Pacific Cargo, Cathay Pacific's international freight forwarding network, advanced management and business operations capabilities will help Air China to enhance the overall profitability of cargo operations. Air cargo is expected in 2007 will not significantly increase capacity, the main task is to digest the current capacity and enhance profitability.
2, performance and investment analysis:
Air China in 2006 due to initial public offering until the second half, the lack of sufficient data to compare the quarter, we have the growth of Air China's performance of the main considerations include the following:
2007 growth in capacity and traffic analysis: capacity investment, the 2006 domestic and international and regional routes, respectively, passenger capacity increased by 11.7%, 13.9% and 4.3%; in 2007 the aviation business is expected to grow by transport development will continue in 2006 trends, national, international and regional routes, passenger capacity, rose 11.5%, respectively, 15% and 5%, 12.8% growth in consolidated passenger delivery. Put on the domestic routes to reduce, consolidate load factors and fares, increased earning power. At the international routes will continue to invest in: Air China-US routes have to be made in 2007 and strive to losses, with the transformation of Air China, "a two-class" end, service level will be enhanced, together with load factor on international routes in recent years, as well as the level of fares increase is expected in the international routes, Air China will gradually increase efficiency. At the regional routes, the capacity would be released gradually declined after the completion of code sharing with Cathay Pacific, Air China's earnings at the regional routes will be increasing rapidly. Air China in 2007 is expected to domestic and international & regional airline passenger traffic grew 14%, 16% and 8%, integrated passenger transport volume increased 14.6%, consolidated load factor increased by 1.7% to 77% high.
Unit-benefit analysis: From the 2006 semi-annual report to see, Air revenue passenger kilometers increased by 2.5% to 0.617 yuan, an increase of 2.5%; the third quarter, revenue passenger kilometers to reach 0.68 yuan, despite the lack of historical data, we determine the fuel surcharge closed cases, similar to other airlines, Air China in 2006 three quarters of a higher ticket price levels. 2006 1-3 quarter consolidated revenue passenger kilometers to reach 0.641 yuan, at a high point in recent years. Suppose in 2007 in oil prices cuts 300 yuan / ton, while the fuel surcharge level will drop 20%, we conservatively expect Air fares for domestic routes in 2007 and 2006 was flat in the international and regional routes, driven by rising fares, 2007 integrated fare level rose by 0.7%. Freight prices, as noted earlier, in 2006 Air China Cargo capacity is put in, the overall efficiency of growth is not yet clear, semi-annual revenue freight ton-km 2.25 yuan, down 2.7%; 2007 Air cargo aircraft capacity put in the introduction and growth will be significantly slowdown, coupled with the use of existing capacity by adding Cathay Pacific Cargo, freight rates and freight charges, carrying a whole will show a possible improvement.
Investment Performance & Analysis: 06-07 years, earnings per share is expected to reach 0.33 yuan and 0.27 yuan, a specific analysis shows that in 2006 net profit will be about 40 million, which contains nearly 20 million or so a one-time sale of Dragonair exchange gains and losses, Another 2 billion net profit of about 8-10 million annual investment returns Cathay Pacific Airways, the remaining 10-12 million in profits from the main business operations; expected 2007 net profit of 3.3 billion, in addition to Cathay Pacific Airways is still from about one billion investment income, the realized profits mainly from the main operation, the embodiment of our load factor for Air fare, as well as the cost of the combined judgments. Take into account the arrival of the Olympic Games in 2008, Air China will be the main beneficiaries in 2008 will be a rapid increase in performance is expected in 2008, Air China will achieve net profit of 5.7 billion, earnings per share were 0.47 yuan. Air China currently 06-08 years of PE, respectively 22 times, 27 times and 16 times, from the 2007 performance of view, stock prices slightly higher, but considering the strong profitability of Air China's comprehensive, performance, high stability, while profits in the industry increased by stage, buy.
