Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-30
2006 State Grid Corporation companies face difficult changes in sourcing patterns, the main purpose of this research is to understand the company in 2006 of the measures and in 2007 development framework. From the company understand the situation, in 2007 the company's overall ideal: Canadian orders transferred in 2005 (about 200 million), 2006, orders for a total of 13-14 million in 2006 to 2007 orders for the transfer of 3-4 million in 2006, the structure of the unfinished orders, dispatching orders account for the majority; another continuously strengthened with the construction of urban public utilities, the company is more optimistic about the subway project, and the large amount of individual orders (Shanghai Metro individual tenders for nearly 100 million) .
Power Grid Dispatching Automation: dispatching automation products in the second half of 2006 showed explosive growth in this business orders than in 2005, up 80%, and total about 500 million. The outbreak of dispatching automation grow our business comes down to two things: First, has experienced large-scale power grid construction in 2006, dispatching automation products in the market start-up; the other hand, developed by dispatching automation products open3000, the software part of system platform products , while other sub-software (energy, load management, etc.) can access the system, so the system is not only to "advanced technology" to expand their markets, and also the basis of this platform to develop this business segment, extending market space. Industry growth and strengthen the monopoly of the business led to orders increased 80%.
Substation Automation Products: through the second half of the national grid in 2006 purchasing patterns change, the level of substation automation product gross margin decline in gross margin level of the current substation automation has been stable for more than 450 million orders in 2006, the company adheres to the development of substation automation products 220KV high-end market rather than income for the expansion of the company involved in the field of substation automation 110KV and below, firmly occupy the high-end market, maintaining the company's margins.
Rail traffic and industrial automation: "Eleventh Five-Year" in urban construction makes the subway construction swarm, while the metro scale business development, making this product gross margin has been increasing. Following the Sino-German company's insurance company is still cultivated varieties, the company's shareholders to use grid background to develop this business, relay protection of the market space of about 30-40 million, following the security aspects of a huge room for development.
Power plant DCS systems and building control belong to the field of industrial control, power plant DCS faces weak growth in power plant construction, the company is now developing petrochemical, metallurgical and other areas outside the electric power system, the part of the market is expected to account for the current power plant market, 30 %, and this part of the market originally occupied by foreign giants such as ABB, the follow-up services due to a software huge market of domestic companies to enter that part of the trend is clearly, and the high level of field margins. Optimistic about the development of the field.
Taxes: State Power NARI key software enterprises belong to the state in 2005, the company income tax rate of 7.5% in a trial in 2006 the company's income tax 15% income tax rate is expected to then remained at 15%.
Earnings forecasts and investment recommendations: State Power NARI developed open3000 system, which the company a monopoly in the field of power grid scheduling further strengthened; substation automation growth in pace with the industry; rail transportation economies of scale leading to gross margin increase; company relay services, electricity System Protection software is built on the device layer, the company relies on State Grid Corporation to develop this business as a relay crowding of the market optimistic about the long-term development of the company; the short term, the cumulative 2006 to 2007 orders for Maori compared with High-scheduling orders, promising the company's short-term profitability. Company's EPS for the 2006-2008 achieve 0.49,0.72,0.93 yuan, giving the company in 2007 to 50 times PE, target price of 36 yuan.
