Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-04
Significantly reduced high-growth industries, overcapacity exacerbated the contradictions
State Information Center's economic forecasting department Industry Task Force
Summary
Development of the industry in 2006 remained relatively optimistic about the macro environment, but tight than in 2005. On the one hand, economic growth slowed down in particular the demand for investment will make part of the processing industry overcapacity conflicts have worsened, and corporate profits space will be reduced; the other hand, the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption, industrial structure adjustment, market supply capacity, Meidianyouyun tensions ease, but also a large number of industries will bring new market opportunities.
Since 2005, the macroeconomic environment changes and the introduction of a series of regulatory policies, a profound impact on the operation of China's trade pattern. Environment and changes in prices of raw materials supply, investment demand falling, the exchange rate regime reform and the evolution of changing the running of our country's industry base, also in 2005 the industry showed a different pattern of running characteristics of the past. From January to September of 2005, trends, resource-based industries continue to be the bottleneck in the operation of the highlights of the industry and consumer goods industries continued to maintain a rapid growth, high investment in fixed assets associated with iron and steel, building materials, machinery and other capital goods industries by rate obviously slowed down.
In 2006, investment in recent years, production capacity will be gradually formed into the production phase, production capacity and total supply will be further expanded, and in the aggregate demand, especially the uncertainty of external demand to enhance the situation, some industries will face overproduction or the constraints of insufficient effective demand, industrial efficiency of the sector as a whole will tend to decline, the industry will be further differentiation between the Dominant.
2005: Most sectors show high profit growth down
Macro-control "has to maintain pressure", the industry investment in warm and cold mixed Since 2005, the state continued to implement a "have to maintain pressure" of the industry, regulatory policies, in the strict control of real estate, iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and other investment in overheated sectors while strengthened the agriculture, energy, transportation and some services sectors such as weak investment. 2005 January-August total, the national investment in fixed assets the amount of 4.11509 trillion yuan, up 27.4%, an increase over the same period the previous year, down 2.9 percentage points. Among them, the largest decline of the industry are mainly the following types of industries, one is clearly overheated investment in the construction and real estate. The second is a serious low-level redundant construction steel and cement industries. Third, the excessive investment growth in previous years, electricity, petroleum processing and coking industry. Fourth, due to resource constraints and the cost of suppressing the air, wood processing industry.
At the same time, some in line with state industrial policies and market-hot investments in the industry to switch to maintain a rapid growth. First, rail transport, urban public transportation bottlenecks in the national economy and industry. Second, some of the resources constraint-oriented industries. The third is closely related with the consumption of food and services. Fourth, with our own innovative part of the equipment industry.
The upstream industry's growth is generally better than the downstream industry, consumer goods industries is stronger than the stability of the investment goods industry
1-8 months, subject to the macro-control policies and cost-push impact of industrial effectiveness of systemic decline, profit growth steady Qujiang. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 1-August, industrial enterprises above designated size (all state-owned enterprises and an annual sales income over 5 million yuan of non-state enterprises, the same below) realized profits of 864.3 billion yuan over the same period last year 20.7% an increase over the previous year fell 17.8 percent over the same period. Large-scale industrial enterprises suffered losses totaling 137.3 billion yuan, an increase of 53.1%.
2005 January-August total profit increase of 50% of a total of six high-performing sector, accounting for 39 major categories of industrial sector 15.3%; profit growth in the 30-50% better performance of the industry a total of nine, accounting for more than 23%; profit growth in the 10-20% of the performance of the industry in general a total of 13, accounting for 33.3%; profit growth in 0-10% of the poor performance of the industry a total of four, accounting for 10.3%; profit growth decline in the industry a total of seven, accounting for 17.9%, of which the whole industry there are two loss-making industries.
High profit growth in most industries showed a downward trend, high-growth industries significantly reduced the number of
Compared with a year earlier, profit increases markedly improved the industry is only 11, accounting for 39 categories of industrial sector 28.2%.
Declining rate of profit growth in the industry, some high-growth industries in previous years due to external environmental changes, not only has withdrawn from the halo of high-growth, and the industry-wide loss of individual trades into a situation. By the energy and raw material prices and falling product prices squeezed 1-August total, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, although the profit growth rate of 28% over same period last year, but the increase over significantly reduced over the previous year for the entire industry additional contribution to the profit decline. Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry that profit growth in 2004 is reduced to a loss of big champion, 1-August cumulative losses of nearly 8.0 billion. Falling rate of profit growth through the analysis of 10 industries can be seen in 2004, many high-growth industries are showing signs of fatigue, performance, growth has deteriorated.
Be exported and become important to the economy pulling power, heavy industry, export growth has accelerated noticeably
In some products in the international market prices and domestic market in the case of inversion, a number of heavy and chemical industries began to develop the perspective of expanding the international market, and have achieved some results. In the traditional textile and garment, furniture, leather, home appliances and other industries to maintain stable growth, while exports of petrochemicals, steel, cement, chemical fiber, paper, shipbuilding and other industries export a meteoric rise, becoming new forces driving China's exports. 2005 January-August total, an increase in the export delivery value of the top ten of the industry, heavy chemical industry alone accounts for four seats.
In addition, part of the heavy chemical industry, although the cumulative January-August export growth in the entire industry is not very obvious, but some of the sub-sectors of export preached strong growth. If the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the steel industry export delivery value increased by 233.98%, an increase over the previous year increased 78.86 percent over the same period, non-fabricated metal products industry in the export delivery value of the cement industry increased by 90.08%, an increase of over the same period last year increased 72.62 percent, transport equipment manufacturing industry in the ship and floating device manufacturing industry export delivery value increased by 38.71%, an increase over the previous year increased 12.25 percent over the same period. Heavy chemical industry, export growth, he explains, after the introduction, digestion and absorption stage, some of China's heavy chemical industry toward the international market with the strength of the other hand, resource constraints exacerbated by the contradiction between the ecological environment the protection of the formation of a greater pressure. A total of 3 1 [2] [3]
