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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Zhang Yu Te-The Economic Observer
Mogao to 4300 points, the two record highs, the stock market in June are still unable to shake off the final drop shocks.
This month, the last trading week, the Shanghai index appeared in February, following the biggest weekly decline since, reaching 6.62%. Market turnover decreased in the policy, regulation and control, this should not be short of funds and the bull market began to face increasingly serious financial bottlenecks.
May 30 has been raised stamp duty on securities transactions, the entire stock market in June the relationship between capital supply and demand started to occur in subtle changes, new funds gradually reduced turnover falling more and more obvious that the phenomena of capital supply has been reflected in the stock market powerless.
June 28, the Ministry of Finance issued 1.55 trillion special treasury bonds to be the message introduced, which makes the management of the market is expected to generate further tightening of monetary policy; the same time, interest, taxes, or reduction of the wind stop collecting renewed. The expansion accelerated diversion of funds ... ... These phenomena continued.
However, "surface tension of such funds should be short-term." Shun Securities an analyst said, "outside the capital is still abundant, as long as the policy environment has relaxed into the stock market will be a substantial increase in funding."
Contraction
June 26, EMC securities held in Shanghai in the face of institutional clients a strategy report, the macro level and the level of capital supply situation in the stock market become the focus of attention.
EMC stock in its analysis proposed in the report, third-quarter financial side there will be a short-term tensions. In their view, due to policy regulation and control, three-quarter contraction in loans to commercial banks, while the stock market stock funds were to some extent will also be diverted.
In fact, the situation has been some of the performance of the stock market confirmed.
In the May 30 stock index fell 6 percent, the market in mid-June although there have been a wave of backlash, but as is always the policy aspect of uncertainty to investors enormous psychological pressure, so a rebound in the previous high of close to 4335 points, When once again into adjustment.
Entered in June, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover on the decline. The last week of the month, the Shanghai market's daily turnover is only about 130 billion yuan, the lowest of June 26 only 126.7 billion yuan, it is only May 30 to less than half the volume.
"Volume in a relatively short period of time of significant decline, partly because of the rise in transaction costs lead to decline in an atmosphere of speculation and investor sentiment increased wait and see on the other hand also shows that the stock market began to fall into the short-term capital surface tension. "Cathay Pacific Fund, WISE researchers believe that the recent rebound in market turnover, even in the process also has not enlarge insufficient supply of funds is an important one of the reasons. "
And in June there was a significant feature is that when the market fell in the new share subscription, purchase, when the market rose to unfreeze the funds.
June 1, cis-network of electronic distribution, online and offline a total freeze 364 billion yuan the day broader market fell 2.65 percent; and June 7 this purchase more than 3000 billion yuan of funds after thawing the broader market rose 3.03%.
In the June 20 TOPBAND electronic distribution, the 194.7 billion yuan purchase funds were frozen, the day of broader market fell 2.07%, and when the June 21 purchase of 1.6291 trillion yuan of China Ocean freeing up the funds, the broader market rose 1.18%, temporarily ending lived for the previous day's decline.
Hai Tong Securities analyst Wang Sheng Policy Institute held that "an abundant supply of capital cases, a secondary market, there will be no significant funding between the seesaw phenomenon, and only surface tension would lead to capital subscription of new shares, or when the funds were unfrozen a secondary market volatility. "
In fact, in June of the three IPO situation, purchase shares of the capital a slight increase over the prior period, Sheng Wang said, "This could be some withdrawal of funds from the secondary market, choose a risk-free the market, which will be even more so inadequate in the secondary market funds. "
On the other hand, bond index remained low in the recent three months, Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute Notes Qu Qing, a researcher believes that the current bond index funds continue to fall is also related to the tight side, but with the rate hike cycle, the arrival of The value of government bonds has become an inevitable return, which also funds on the stock market had a negative impact surface.
Meanwhile, the surface tension of funds not just reflected in the secondary market, according to informed sources, the National Development Bank recently an asset securitization at issue in nearly two years, are rare bids, the person said, "the underlying stream There are many factors, primarily the rate of return of this project is expected to reach the market, but also funds related to surface tension. because it is only lack of funds, the project will have a more cautious and critical choice. "
Fan Lau
The market's performance indicated that some funds are fleeing.
Recently, a number of subjects in the low-priced stocks may substantially continuous sell into even some of the decline in the month, more than 50%, such as Lake Star technology, the number of source technology, Lin shares, East China Computer, Northeast Electric, etc., or do not little more than 60%.
Under the influence of this factor, the stock market in the last week of June is often an "inexplicable" and fell sharply. June 25 and June 28 for two days, the Shanghai Composite Index in the absence of bad situation in the new afternoon drive suddenly plate, and callback deep sites.
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For the surface tension caused by the stock market capital of reasons, many analysts believe that this was mainly due to some internal funds and the stock market plans to enter the OTC market funds have been diverted, while the 4300-point psychological cordon gradually let some fear of high the withdrawal of funds.
Shanghai Securities Investment Department of a person, said the sharp increase stamp duty on securities transactions, making the withdrawal of speculative funds some of the stock market.
Objectively speaking, raising stamp duty on transactions will increase the transaction costs of investors, some people will increase transaction costs due to give up frequent trade stocks, "really the hardest hit, many are accustomed to using right down to do great stock turnover will be significantly reduced institutional trading, and even change the investment strategies. "The Shanghai Securities said, this is the case, a number of speculative funds will choose to temporarily evacuate the stock market.
State Sheng Teng Jun, general manager of the Securities Institute told reporters: "According to the current volume level, to improve stamp duty, after a year because of tax from the funds diverted from the stock market will be more than 200 billion yuan, accounting for 1 trillion in the stock market yuan one-fifth of the stock of capital. "
At the same time, because of strict regulation and control policy before the stock market from other markets, he moved to some of the funds will be for fear of broader market and turned to another callback market.
The past two months, QFII's position has gradually decreased. The board's statistics show that retail investors rush in April next plate, while the body lighten up more than 40 billion over the same period, individual investors dominated in April of the stock market. The April lighten up the main body is QFII.
Data show that, from entering this year, QFII has been in continuous lighten up A shares by the end of April for the first time does not appear in the A shares of the total circulation of the market value of hosting the top 50 list, as of the end of March, QFII market value of holdings of A shares in circulation to 22.957 billion, taking into account the broader market higher factors, in April QFII holdings of A shares more than 27.5 billion yuan. The analysts believe that this is likely to lighten up the current trend is continuing.
Some diversion of funds in the stock market the stock of cases, the decrease in the size of the new funding.
Wang Haitao early June to complete the "stock funds in May 2007 analysis" The report shows that in May Shanghai and Shenzhen stock funds rate of increase has begun to fall.
Data, May 30, 2007 in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets stock funds approximately 1.016 trillion yuan, an increase in April compared with 360 billion, while the first two months of the monthly increase in the amount of capital stock in billions of dollars or more Therefore, starting from May, the inflow of funds has already begun to slow.
WANG Hai-tao said, "It is not known in June the stock of money in the end will be what kind of situation, but it is certain is that there will be no significant increase." He believes that retail investors passion is new funding significantly decreased the biggest reason for the decline.
China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation's data show that, following the June 15 account for the number of new A shares fell below 150,000, a record low of two months after the June 26 the number of accounts continues to decline sharply, reaching 129,713 for the April 3 Japan has been low.
4300 points into the cordon?
For the next trend, Wanguoceping IT research director Wang Rongkui that the current market is in a Policy Game under the technical adjustments Quotes, the key will depend on the policy aspect changes.
However, some agencies have pointed out that the adjustment of the market's own requirements is the real driving force leading to broad market pullback. BOC International Securities told reporters: "near the 4300 itself has a great adjustment requirements, regardless of how such a policy change, adjustments are difficult to avoid. Down the space at least 20%, that is down to 3500 or thereabouts."
Returned to investors, these people made a suggestion that "you do not know how the policy change, or whether it should adjust when the broader market, as long as you carefully judge their own hands, the stock is overvalued, if the high side, on the choice of being away from the market it. "
The stock market has always been concerned about the financial side of the number of analysts Haitao Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute, said, "It is not a good judge of funds to the surface tension of what the specific situation, but the change in the policy side of the stock market will have long-term side effects of capital, which require our continued attention, while the long term funding is still relatively abundant, and now a short-term diversion. "
The Shun Securities also believes that the "four quarters, such funds will be to ease the tension."
AIG-Huatai Fund Investment Research Department Director Zhang Ya that "In fact, although the market in mid-June had conducted a continuous rebound, but soon a series of liquidity for capital markets, regulation and control policy again introduced, including speeding up the supply of major shares, issued QDII as well as national foreign exchange investment company issuing special treasury bonds and so on, the real impact of the policy itself, the extent of unanswered questions, but at least pass out the Government's determination to control the market valuation of risk. Therefore, the future market will still increase the volatility of capital approach still would be very careful. "
Zhang Ya think the next six months, the stock market will be below the 4500-point run, "the Chinese market in the second half of 2007 to maintain in 2008 dynamic price-earnings ratio of 20 times to 25 times the level of a good reasonable, the corresponding range of roughly 3500 points to 4500 points, . "
The director of China equities at JP Morgan Chase, General Manager and Chairman of the Li Jing is the future for the performance of A shares is much more cautious, "This year's A-share market has been strong performance has made multi-issued A-share market bubble of the warning, including the Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, at present, Beijing's preferred A shares by increasing the supply of gradually reducing the valuation of A shares. "However, she did not think that the adjustment of A shares would be too intense , because "the stock market would impede the rapid adjustment of the stock market in the capital market to enhance the role of long-term plan, and will lead to social unrest."
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