Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-09-25
Rand Corporation's report "in 2020, China will become the poor" was dished out after the people immediately come forward to refute the Chinese scholars, frankly, it is very consistent with China's practice, every time the Chinese economy's "bad news", there is always Chinese scholars have come forward to "clarify the rumors," which, and we are very familiar with the work of the SFC do surprisingly similar. But this time, "Chinese scholars" level low is really big out my expectations.
Rand Corporation study is that during the Korean War before the conclusion that China would send troops to the Korean company, currently the U.S. government's chief think-tank company. However, the general content of the report did not exceed my expectations, financial problems is still a very important argument.
"China's banks as we know the world's worst banks" (original) Of course, the irony is that this expert's rebuttal:
"This is typical only see the problem did not see the viewpoint of development. Construction Bank's listing shows that China's financial industry, the adjustment can be sure, but far from being out of control of China's financial signs. Ironically, the Construction Bank's Investors are America's banks, smart money Americans would vote for "the world's worst bank" it? "
To tell the truth, I really do not understand the experts whether there are minimum standards of professional conduct, that is at least the content of their comments have some understanding of. From any one point of view, China's financial sector is not "the adjustment was to seize" evidence of a simple fact that even the most optimistic estimates (from China's official news is always the most optimistic, but 25% of the always get away), the China's banking sector non-performing assets rate of more than one quarter. The Standard & Poor's released data shows that China's banking sector non-performing assets ratio is around 44% ~ 45%, the ratio even better than well received by victims of non-performing assets, Bank of Japan is even higher! The four major banks capital is 5%, while the non-performing assets rate is 44%, non-performing assets, there is great uncertainty, about half of the bad debt, that ratio is 22%, if such a calculation of net asset ratio is negative 17% ! Super loss-making enterprises!
The expert said the adjustment and grasp, it is estimated that those few were blown incredible asset management company, but the fact is that non-performing assets are non-performing assets transferred to the asset management company, but that is changing the owner of a moment does not mean that non-performing assets suddenly turn good, and It's like a B owed money to 1:00 is not out of the debt-to-B to C, does not mean that A is also able to give out the same simple logic.
From the current level of view, as at the end of 2005, 6, China's four asset management companies disposed of bad assets accumulated a total of 717.4 billion yuan, 148.4 billion yuan total cash recovery, recycling rate was about 20%, in other words, the top 44% will be has shrunk to 8.8% resulting in about 35% of the total capital of a huge deficit. We may assume that the four major state banks are National Bank representative, then as the national banks have total assets of 31.49 trillion yuan terms, the shortfall is about 10 trillion yuan, 1.3 billion Chinese people in accordance with the calculation, each of about 8,000 yuan.
And this is just the ideal expectations, from a practical operational point of view, the recovery rate of 20% is due to start selling a fairly non-performing assets is a "rotten in the picking is good," the future will be even lower rate, and that spot checks 100 million more than 5000 transactions in violation of the approximately 70 billion, in addition to the four management companies processing period has been extended to an indefinite period from a decade or even the danger of closure, this formula is very simple, we can themselves count.
In addition, China's securities industry as a bleak outlook, a speculation, to remain non-performing assets (which in fact is synonymous with wealth evaporation) is hundreds of millions to several billions, it seems the brokerage of non-performing assets rate of about 50 %.
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