Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-29
Guests:
YIN Bao-hua (known as the "folk stock god")
Huang Tao (Central Plains real estate projects and general manager)
Hou Jun (Minsheng Securities Investment Officer)
DONG Si-Yi (China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. Analyst)
"Stock god" do not buy the seven
Ying Zhoukan: We'll call you "folk stock god", say you have a unique stunt to read the tape over the past five years, has successfully predicted 16 out of market's big stage and big top end of its error is only 3/1000, there are even that is not bad, so that everyone is very shocked. Be able to tell people how you invest in stocks of the secret?
YIN Bao-hua: General investors buying and selling stocks a lot of misunderstanding, my secret stocks of the stock market, "7 do not buy":
First, put the amount of days after the firm do not buy stocks. Put the amount of days is generally the market began to flee the main signal. If investors are indeed interested in stocks put the amount of days, they should wait and see, you can put the amount of days the closing price on the day of drawing a straight line, if the price of the future encounter this line, but added can be considered buy.
2, a jump-off determined not to buy individual stocks. If the Stock Quotes, like a chopstick, straight to heaven, it means that the dealer has been Huanchou leave, you will be fitted and then go. Boom is driven by big money, when a stock rose to 300% or more, the original main withdraw from the market run away when the main force of the new market will not soon formed, usually do not have any significant buying immediately took over, the short-term difficult to rise in the price.
3, large ex firmly not to buy individual stocks. Ex is the main market, another opportunity to escape, such as a unit from the 3 yuan Chaodao 20 yuan, few people pick up plate, but it is 10 to send 10 diluted only 10 yuan, half of low prices created the illusion of low prices, People like to get petty to buy cheap, once the individual investors access plate, the market was spared from the main clean. If the majority of Ex-encounter days after the amount is determined can not be touched.
4, there is a big problem determined not to buy individual stocks. Seriously dealt with by the management will not go into, first wait and see what to say, for example Guangxia, Kelon electrical appliances. Unit if there is a substantial increase, it can certainly considered to be institutions in the hype. However, these shares or face regulatory, or funding strand breaks occur, the risk of large, easy to be finished with the inside, retail investors can not control is not worth to take risks.
5, long-term consolidation of the firm do not buy individual stocks. This stock is generally Makers was evacuated village, but did not take away all the chips. Look at individual stocks to look at the trend of a continuous, long-term consolidation is not up and down can not be bought.
6, positive public firm do not buy the stock. This is currently the most vulnerable investors into a mistake. Even good as it gets results, investors can see the whole of China and they are all buying, who profits? Moreover, the performance can be man-made. Market, there is such a famous saying: "Everyone knows that the good news, is definitely not good news; Everyone knows that bad, certainly not bad; advantage of this opportunity is a good, good release may fall."
7, the Fund Zhongcang determined not to buy stocks. Because the fund account can not conceal a quarterly basis. The Fund does not in power, profitable run. Of course, this theory, time-sensitive, in the bear market inside the most obvious. A bull market can generally be negligible, broad based bull market in stocks, the Fund will not sell. Bear market funds leave the territory where the retail whole quilt, so bear firmly not to buy when the fund Shigekura.
Most in need of a good stock speculation or technical
Ying Zhoukan: After so many years of market experience that you are right he could become a "folk stock god", the greatest experience that?
YIN Bao-hua: experience of two main points, first, to learn good technique, and second, believe in themselves.
Stocks need to learn technology can not blindly operate. With the expansion of the stock market, especially in the management control the market matures, "policy market" is constantly diluted, technical analysis of the importance of the success of the operation is increasingly apparent. Learning techniques need to be patient, and even to pay school fees, in this regard, there is no short cut to go.
As to believe in yourself is to establish the correct investment philosophy. Do not blindly believe that the market rumors. Investors should stick to their own independent judgments. There is a saying the stock market, anything can be deceptive, the stock market only to deceive. Therefore, as long mastered the linear analysis, we would be tantamount to seize the stock market Niu Bizi.
Ying Zhoukan: Can we talk about you sum up all these years you felt the most useful technology stocks?
Yin Bao-hua: I think the stock market up or Change, the message data can not be trusted, only techniques, only perfect dial the ability to read the tape to beat the dealer, the letter days than the letter the letter to himself, in the final analysis is to believe that technology.
I use a simple sentence summed up my experience: "Online Yinxian buy Yangxian throw line." The so-called "online Yinxian buy", to meet two requirements, namely, the effective break the stock averages, in the following few days, the price correction will be to form a Yinxian, but as long as no heavy volume, we can boldly buy income, the more close to the average Yinxian location, purchase price as possible.
On the other hand is the "Yang Xian throw line." Namely, after the stock bounced back to average below the moving average near sell. Many investors know to buy, but always very difficult to sell Fengdao worried that the loss may have thrown the wrong a profit. It must be noted that, if a larger volume of day 3 times the recent average, you can throw. If there is a question of buying the wrong stocks, but also do not get too excited about, but there is no need to hurry to sell into, you can then bounced back to average price near escape, it is not only loss of fees.
Yingzhou Kan: Society of stocks technology in the hands of the stock is not better?
YIN Bao-hua: Gubuguolai to raise a child too much. Do not do too much.
Atsutoshi: I admire Warren Buffett's words: grasp the life that belongs to you of 20 stocks. I rewrite this sentence to give shareholders a friend: a good grasp can accompany you 3 to 5 years to 20 stocks.
Ying Zhoukan: stocks are no-win law?
YIN Bao-hua: I have summed up the nine stocks lose money's Law: the husband and wife were fried family accounts; shares of speculation among the Friends of funds; colleagues in a joint venture between the stocks; the Joint Staff in collaboration stocks; client discussions to stocks; listen to the radio stocks; read newspapers stocks ; watching television stocks; listening to stock analysts stocks. Only believe that they buy stocks in order to win. In fact, technology stocks is 7 points, 3 points gambling movement, not necessary to win.
All clearance below 3550 points
Ying Zhoukan: The next tape will be how the stock market go from here? How should investors do?
Yin Bao-hua: According to the classical theory of Gann Line 8, Friday (July 6) tape hitting a 9-line, the rebound over 20-day moving average is a must, I forecast that if the market outlook in the absence of the policy face tremendous impact on the situation, on the rebound 23, MA, and more than 5% of the range, investors could easily enter the court, the flow of. However, if the afternoon break on the 9th line of the 3550-point position, investors have a high degree of vigilance all the clearance, immediately leave.
DONG Si-Yi: The current market, should be made the reduction of the stock rally. The next stage of the stock market, I think the Quotes of the adjustment will be by the end of September this year, in the middle there will be relatively large number of red chips to return to A-share market, such as PetroChina and China Mobile, when the time would have put pressure on funds. But in October, both the stock index futures to the fund diversion, or red-chip blue-chip pressure on capital, are almost finished. From now on, will inevitably shape the differentiation of individual stocks, low-priced stocks will be marginalized. Therefore, the timing of rebound is underweight. The next 3 months, the stock market will be oscillatory, if the investor is now short positions or enter the market, we could also take into account re-enter the market in October.
Atsutoshi: I agree with Mr Tung's judgments, the future stock trend afternoon there will be an oscillation will not be up so quickly. But I think that stocks in 7,8,9 for three months, is a structural bull market start-up phase, meaning that during this period of time, gradually increasing the differentiation of individual stocks, the next stage will be relatively good performance of the former a stage of collapse of the subject shares. In particular, some have already declined by 60%, 70% of the shares, currently only shares have fallen by nearly one hundred years of near-line, based on past experience, fallen, after years of line, there is often a rebound, the rebound rate I estimate that 20% of the ~ 30%.
In this wave rally is completed, the whole subject shares will continue to divide, it will take a very long time to build a bottom, I guess this time may be 3 to 6 months, in which the 3 to 6 months, as first-line The blue-chip may be early start, this aspect is the return of red chips in order to meet the needs of the other stock index futures but also to meet the emerging needs.
From now until the end of the year, is likely to copy that last year's rise in the second half of blue-chip Quotes. So this time, investors are taking advantage of the most important theme of the short term will make a substantial rebound in stocks, do a good job position restructuring, will be the subject of the hands of a gradual shift to blue-chip stocks, including the "returnees" red chips back, they are rising The opportunities are great. With the blue chips and high-priced shares to a new level, is expected to early next year around the Spring Festival, China's stock market is expected to re-enter the full bull market phase. Now, if in accordance with mid-year report predicted the overall market average price-earnings ratio of 32 times, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is probably 28 times, according to the price-earnings ratio of 60 times, then next year, the Shanghai Composite Index may be increased to 8,000-point mark. In this wave of Quotes, from the year to the next year, there will be a lot of stocks likely to occur three or four times.
Ying Zhoukan: stocks make a lot of people are impetuous, winning when the happy, sad when losing money, and even affect the life and work, how can we maintain a stable state of mind?
Hou Jun: I would like tips on the three, first with the spare cash in stocks and money to see a doctor Do not take food stocks, so it would be more relaxed mood; second in the stock market sensitivity are not clear about the direction of the time, not full of warehouses, for example, in the present circumstances semi-warehouse is appropriate; and finally maintain a good attitude, never chase a high.
