Clear up the doubts of experts contracted volume of transactionsfour suspense Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2005-12-17

Source: Morning News

Day trading volume plummeted into the two remaining peak

Editor's note: last week's sharp shock is different this week, the stock market can be described as tranquil, showing the typical features of Su Liang finishing. Shanghai stock market trading volume from a peak of 275.5 billion yuan, to yesterday's turnover of 57.08 billion yuan, only 20% of the peak! Divide so great that people were stunned, but also produce large differences in the trend of the afternoon.

For the current daily trading volume is normal or not normal? Shanghai and Shenzhen market, how much volume should be the norm? Significant volume shrinkage What does it mean? We have invited several professionals to analyze this. It is worth mentioning that, the expert does not simply burst out with the pre-peak period every day to compare the amount of days, but will be placed in an A-share market from immature to mature gradually during the transition, into the family of global stock markets in the form of lateral, vertical comparison, with a view to a broader vision to investors so that they could arrive at a more objective evaluation.

[Suspense 1]

Why is the extreme volume will shrink

Gui Haoming: Su Liang reason is not complicated, first, cooling speculation in stocks underperformance, while underperformance is mainly relying on stocks and funds have continued involvement, turnover continued to enlarge the Tuishang Qu. Now, this move has come to an end, big funds are withdrawn from stock underperformance, so naturally less volume. Second, after the sharp correction in the stock market, the market operation difficulty markedly improved, individual investors trade on the level of activity then declined to buy the stock after it difficult to make money in the circumstances, there is little new money into the market, so that the natural turnover not go up the. Third, the market the most active part of the short-term money, some in the resting state, and some may be fought in overseas markets go, the transaction also thin down.

Old Music: This shows that the market has not formed a consensus, the market mode of operation has undergone major changes, and many funds choose exit and wait and see. The first is part of the withdrawal of speculative hot money, or wait and see, this part of the funds in the Fund after the Spring Festival refused to Awkwardness Sedan Chair, along with new retail launch a "cap, lower-revolution", but with the large-cap, lower low tide in June hastily evacuated. Second, many individual become a "cap, lower-revolution" of the victim after June's shock Quotes repeated again fill in repeated sets of self-help, or are unable to bargain-hunting impulse descending the state, and many forced into the deep sets of retail operations hibernation. Third, some institutions continue to lighten up a strategic, such as the first half of QFII's position has been gradually reduced, to the end of April for the first time been managed from the A share market value of the total circulation of the top 50 list of stealth, and some strategies from the QFII the reports, whose lighten up is also likely to continue.

Liu Kai: This aspect is the top of the market in 4000 continued long-term change hands and formed enormous pressure on the top of 4,000-point belt, with the presence of this pressure led to the market after a period of entering the amount of turbulence can be difficult to effectively concentrated on the formation of new attack force. In the contraction of liquidity and other macroeconomic policy tightening may be issued at any time against the backdrop of the market increases both the lack of policy support, lack of new and continuing hot market, resulting in decline in the enthusiasm of investors to operate, a strong atmosphere of wait and see. The second reason is that many medium and small retail investors, part of the loss of the ability to continue to frequent short-term trading. Quote this round, the new shareholders to participate actively traded one of the main ongoing activity, but it has repeatedly changed hands based on a profit basis, only the existence of earnings expectations, the new shareholders have frequent trading of power. In this round of adjustment, the new shareholders involved in a number of key large-cap, lower decline, investors buy high losses, some investors have been able to conduct frequent swap operation, in the investment mentality in order to wait for a rebound as the reluctant sellers owners, which also makes the market trading has become thin.

[Mystery 2]

The current volume is normal

Old Music: Despite what the normal level of turnover is that it's clear, but volume in the short term decline sharply, certainly not normal. With such a low turnover shows that short-term market adjustment and long-term confidence in the fiercely collision. From the operational perspective, indicating the market major players in the event of dramatic changes. The role of policy control may continue to appear, and considerable funds for the operation under the high stamp duty and unaccustomed signs of hesitation.

Since March this year, the retail market appears large losses, they can not calmly left the market. The face of structural adjustment, many people just like facing a surgical operation, one is longing for long-term rehabilitation, on the other short-term surgical pain, in the process perhaps most people will choose non-perceptual anesthesia.

Liu Kai: I also think that this is not a very normal phenomenon, in the case of highly active trading in the rapidly emerging trading volume greatly reduced, indicating an unstable market anomalies. Of course, it is not pre-amplification volume over a normal phenomenon.

A-share market as investors structure, equity and cultural and economic environment, a variety of historical and practical reasons, speculation has always been a strong investment philosophy is still in the process of growing, the market and did not form the majority of investors, some of the common recognition and compliance with The investment philosophy. Therefore, the rapid expansion in the non-rational expectations, when investor enthusiasm for unusual high transactions to form a one-month change hands 100% of the extreme market situation. Expectations of the fundamentals in a staged transition, when most investors are too worried about the uncertainty brought about policy changes, the transaction will significantly reduced.

Compared with pre-parties on the over-active market concerns, and now trade over-the tendency of shrinkage is also overkill, I believe that as the parties expected to gradually stable, clear, the market volume will return to a relatively normal, relatively smooth state.

[1] [2] Next Page

Gui Haoming: If two years ago, 57 billion yuan can definitely be regarded as "the amount of days", when the Shanghai stock market turnover of the day are often less than 70 billion yuan, 10 billion yuan even a "heavy volume" of. However, the passage of time, and now people have seen the daily transaction record of 275.5 billion yuan, and now suddenly less nearly 2,200 billion yuan, of course, think it is a serious Suliang of. Some people are very worried that trading volume declined, fearing the stock market will be better up can not get on. This fear is not that there is no reason, however, in turn, should also be noted that turnover of 275.5 billion yuan, as the day such a situation is not sustainable because in the transaction process is too great amount of money consumed, it quickly led to funds in short supply.

Mature markets overseas view of the circumstances, Japan 0.5% of turnover is very high, while the A-share market to achieve the highest when the day actually change hands 8%, but now they are still more than 1%, apparently still too large. Say that the Hong Kong market is currently in circulation are 15 trillion dollar market capitalization, while the 60 billion dollar a day or so, but the turnover on the tape can be firmly Tuishang Qu. In this connection, the Shanghai stock market is currently around 4 trillion yuan float market capitalization of 500 billion in daily trading volume is not too small. In the market is basically stable state, it is now looking over the shrinking turnover, in fact, is already sufficient.

[Suspense 3]

Under the risk of multiple contraction, or a chance to

Old Music: volume may not always continue to shrink, the market is looking for a new direction and hot spots. Its nothing more than two kinds of circumstances, one market at a lower position to reach a consensus, that is another heavy volume down; the other is the low volume in the market in the structural adjustment, with time to slowly brewing new hot spot at a later time around new market consensus, and trading volume and gradually enlarge. From the decline and the overall bull market cap, lower-theoretical analysis, the first case appears less likely.

In fact, the structural adjustment of the market has already started, here are no longer mentioned in the second half of the market shall not be background problems. Can be said that stock index futures will be the background color of the second half of the market, its introduction to the market changes brought about with the ongoing adjustment of the market is basically consistent, but also could be viewed as a market agreement. To be sure that this change will certainly bring new opportunities, but this opportunity is a structural one, but can not be comprehensive.

Liu Kai: Because the market is no longer a unilateral upward run trend of turning to the wide shocks, hence the overall market opportunity from the previous month will be significantly reduced. Investment opportunities in the future market will show the characteristics of localized and short-term investors to buy after a quick profit have a certain degree of difficulty, but hopes to be able to buy a short time after the holders of the idea of a profit can be doubled will become unrealistic. Reduce the chances in the market at the same time, the risk is no doubt in constant increased risk both in the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies, but also packet shore up the market of its own trading risk. Of course, we believe that the risk of such transactions have also shown a partial, and in the short-term characteristics. It is mainly manifested in the different plates Change the stock split and finishing high in the indices, based on the underprivileged sections will return the value of a sustained process. In the overall market is still bullish in the context of the adjustment of the stock is often not in one step, it will be a drop down --- bounce --- and then the process, which it easy for investors to create a variety of illusion, resulting in investment mistakes.

Gui Haoming: I just said reduction in volume is not nothing wrong with being so, whether the market outlook will be further volume decrease? I think it is likely to happen. But the short term, now approaching relatively fast. Because the A-share market turnover have its own reasons, it can not fall back to with in a short time on the same level as in mature markets overseas. Also because of volume reduction is a gradual process, then less than the peak of about 8 as it seems that after should be temporary and bottomed out. Beginning of this year when the stock market there have been an adjustment, the same volume has been reduced. In the February 5, Shanghai stock market turnover shrinking to 554 billion level, and then began Jiashengliangzeng broader market sharply rebounded. Although the current market environment and was not the same, but it is also much inspiration people in reducing the volume to a certain extent, it will rebound, and this often, and the index rebound together.

[Suspense 4]

Contracted volume of transactions under which the opportunity to

Liu Kai: volume shrinking, speculation cooled, investment opportunities will also be changed from the previous month. We believe that the current market opportunities may be hidden in the following areas. First, the expected long-term stable growth companies. Such as banking, insurance and other major categories of stock. The growth of these companies mainly based on growth of macroeconomic stability, growth with a more definite predictability. With the future of the entire economic activity of social capital increase in the average rate of return, banks, insurance, class performance of the company have the ability continued to grow. The second is able to maintain rapid growth in consumer, retail and other related companies. The emphasis of the business, beer, dairy and other such companies, these companies operating in the ability to control the risk of price increases of raw materials, etc., possibly through price increases, which provides rent, to the downstream pass, they would be more optimistic about future growth. Third, there are assets from the expected company. As the stock market continued active, makes the injection of assets in order to achieve market-based valuation of the assets to become an inevitable trend. And this injection of assets to a certain extent, enhance the company's stock value, to achieve the maximization of shareholders is still concerned about the future of long-term investment opportunities.

Gui Haoming: It is true that in the event of Shanghai stock market turnover of 570 billion yuan, after it is difficult to say definitely bottomed out, and we just said that Friday's volume was only 57 billion yuan issued a noteworthy signal that is the market may face a turning point.

Taking into account the actual market conditions, the estimated volume of next week, there will still be relatively low status, it should not be drastically reduced. Similarly, the stock market will continue to organize, but not significantly down. In order more fully later Suliang entirely possible that out of the volume and price with the stock bull market.

Old Music: market Suliang structural adjustment has become complicated and confusing, in addition to select sleep, the more individual investors choose to hand over command of capital. The latest statistics show that the size of the fund in the second quarter of this year show the momentum surge, Jing Shengou the size of a record 180 billion and that of the first quarter of this year, partial stock-type funds Jing Shengou just over 300 million copies.

Sleep in what kind of structure, will determine whether the risk or the chance to sleep. If the second half of the market's "background" has been set, then the temporary departure from the index and trading volume need not surprising, because the index will drift away from the majority of individual stocks far away from most of the retail market will gradually become distant. From this point of inspection, may not correspond to the amount of the premium each person, this structural adjustment from the market to understand the market outlook opportunities.

(Gui Haoming: Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute's chief analyst, Kai Liu: Shanghai Tiancheng Investment Manager, Venture Development Co., Ltd., the old music: Good Buy Asia Investment Management Co., Ltd. Research Director)

Previous [1] [2]