Collapse Zhuanggu bookmakers do not earn money Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-10

- From Changjiushenghua consecutive start with seven daily limit

As a crash Zhuanggu, Changjiushenghua had a row, seven daily limit. Since the collapse of Zhuanggu more than two years after another, and now the market has been on the collapse of Zhuanggu flattering. But it is undeniable that, it is now the bookmakers are keen to talk about end of an era is associated with the collapse of a large number of Zhuanggu inseparable. Therefore, the study of the collapse Zhuanggu can get important market information to enable us to better understand the market. But now, the market research on the collapse of Zhuanggu very in-depth, and some even come to the wrong conclusions. If the article said, Zhuanggu crash is making a shipping method, bookmakers and some still make a profit. But this is far from true. Collapse Zhuanggu Makers not only make money, and almost everybody lose too lost their capital. Zhuanggu collapse today does not make money making earn make this topic to Changjiushenghua case analysis.

First, the collapse Zhuanggu are highly Kongpanzhuanggu, Kongpan degree above 70%.

Second, the collapse Zhuanggu have substantial financing. Of financing is the dealer to do a stock market value of collateral materials for mortgage financing, equity market capitalization and the amount of the financing ratio generally 1:1. Financing from the dealer, financing and operating the Department of the tripartite parties signed a financing agreement, commonly known as the "tripartite agreement." Agreement calls for a mortgage banker equity and financing together form a co-management accounts, business department oversees the safety of the co-management of funds accounts. Makers can use condominium stock trading accounts, but the effective period of the agreement the parties have the right to unilaterally withdraw funds in the co-management account, transfer of stock managed to remove the specified transactions. In order to prevent share-price decline led to decline in the market value of condominium accounts affected by financing safe, the agreement should set a mandatory liquidation lines.

General agreement that open interest line: When the day co-management account, the total market value to close at down to 80% of the initial value, the dealer will automatically lose the right of condominium operating account, while the financing side then authorized the forced liquidation sales department. Forced liquidation method is opening the next day when the condominium account for all stock all hung out at the lower limit price in order to be traded. If the day there was no transaction, places in the same way the next day following a daily limit of hanging out until all the stock sold until realized. In other words, the stock condominium account as long as the initial signing of the agreement price or the cost of two daily limit to the open positions on the line.

Line due to concerns about open positions, so the financing of Zhuanggu where its shares are generally required to be maintained at a high level as far as possible to avoid touching open interest fell line, which is why many Kongpanzhuanggu its share price before the crash, to be There are long straight reason.

Again, collapse Zhuanggu entirely due to financial collapse triggered by strand breaks. Makers hope that the stock prices continue to be maintained, but the money was needed for the maintenance of stock. The dealer is the greatest shortages of funds, on the one hand support the market to eat into the need for funds, the high fees to drain the funds, on the other hand, financing and interest payments needs funds, the return of expired funds are needed money. So, as time goes by, the dealer will face increasingly difficult to fund. When making money is just another Zhouzhuanbukai and one of the following conditions occurs, the dealer will have to face extinction: First, when the disk has a large number of Rat pouring and deplete the funds support the market makers; second is when the a certain amount of funding expires, bookmakers are unable to return, but tragically forced liquidation sales department. Once the liquidation began, with the share price decline, more open positions set out on the rush to create a domino effect, stock prices on the way to the collapse of a continuous lower limit. In the author to understand the situation Zhuanggu crash causes often simply because a small amount of money out of a problem. As the banker ill-considered or have been exhausted and eventually channeled to the overall collapse.

How Changjiushenghua collapse? The author notes that in the September 22 Changjiushenghua collapse before it even pulled nine small Yin Xian, stock prices also fell to 16 yuan from 18 yuan. Although none of Yinxian entities large volume is also small, but indicates a continued liquidation pressure disk, bookmakers and the battle and retreated, and support the market seemed a bit powerless. This is the harbinger of the collapse of Zhuanggu soon!

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Because the past three years, all the crash Zhuanggu a daily limit before the first has a slightly lower trend, such as the Branch business (000048), Yiankeji (000008), Century Transit (000.54 thousand), etc.. If the following days there is focused selling pressure, even if only a few dozen shares, but also enough to share smashed into daily limit!

Sure enough, on September 22 Changjiushenghua also repeated this scene. The same day, Changjiushenghua first half of the trading day trend of fairly stable, basically maintained at 16-16.20 yuan. But at the closing 40 minutes before the sell-off attacks suddenly, the bookmakers have clearly unable to support the market, selling a mere 16 million shares of stock will be 14.40 yuan smacked the daily limit that position, followed by the daily limit on the closure of more than 60 million shares of . Making the final exhaustion of strength eaten in the daily limit of 40 million, but the daily limit to close at 25.71 million shares still remaining is that the fate of destruction of the dealer. Changjiushenghua is a typical Kongpanzhuanggu, bookmakers Chi Chou 70% or more, combined with a large number of dealer financing, so when stock prices fall it will lead to liquidation, and the more the more disks or open positions.

September 23 an opening, opening Changjiushenghua Take the daily limit and daily limit of 4,500 million letters, September 24 letters of the 6800 shares, September 25, 6994 closure of the shares, accounting for 73 of the flow of capital stock %. Can say that from September 23 onwards, Changjiushenghua bookmaker had lost the right to operate on the stock. Contingency operations in the stock sales department became the unwinding of the right place.

Let us now analyze how the Changjiushenghua banker is too lose everything to lose. First calculate the amount of financing it. Mentioned before, the bookmakers are generally carried out according to the ratio of 1:1 stock collateral finance, who can take out a mortgage stock commonly known as "the activities of chips." There are "activities chips", the dealer can melt into the money. There is no "activities chips", the dealer will not melt into the money. Zhuanggu crash when making no money, and shows that it is no longer making "activities chips", and dealer financing to reach the limit. That dealer has all the "activities of chips" all 1:1 mortgaged out, when making the stock market value of collateral and financing to buy the stock market capitalization is equal. Accordingly, the financing is easy to calculate the amount of the dealer. Because the dealer to hold the stock in half of the market value of its own funds, half of the financing, and because letters are open positions at the daily limit on the disk. By Changjiushenghua a few days after the closure in the daily limit of more than 6800 shares of situation, Changjiushenghua bookmakers and finance their own holdings number of holdings, shall be the number of shares for more than 3400. A total of 6800 shares in the open positions intraday, as shares of which began in 4500 a second daily limit of 12.96 yuan open positions, and the other begins with a third daily limit of 2,300 shares of 11.66 yuan open positions, which can push the 4500 Anti - shares of open interest line in the first daily limit of 14.4 yuan, an additional 2,300 shares of unwinding unwinding of cable tray daily limit of 12.96 yuan in the second.

As mentioned earlier, co-management account, stock liquidation line at 80% of the initial cost and therefore I can see the initial 4500 shares of unwinding disk should cost 17.8 yuan, an additional 2,300 shares of unwinding disk Cost should be the initial price of 16 yuan. This can be calculated making the initial financing costs 1.169 billion yuan, which we can see the amount of the dealer's own capital and financing, each of about 580 million yuan. To 10 8, Changjiushenghua shares for 7.65 yuan. Even if this price will be 6800 million out of all the open positions, open positions the total amount of cash only 5.2 billion yuan, not only making 5.8 millions of dollars paid out, but even the finance side of the principal amount compensation paid 60 million yuan. This is the tragic crash Zhuanggu end.

The reason for the collapse of Zhuanggu bookmakers lose too lose everything, an important reason for this is the dealer's costs are too high. The makers of the important reasons is the high cost because of high financing costs and fees.

Still Changjiushenghua as an example. First calculate the financing costs. Zhuanggu are usually begins at high point sideways financing Changjiushenghua in November 2000 after reaching a session high point of the right to re-start before the 18-22 yuan sideways, it can basically determine the bookmakers on at this time has begun to finance. Although the Changjiushenghua dealer financing amounted to 580 million yuan last, but certainly at first, and not so much. If its dynamic finance 4-5 billion dollars a year, as in previous years, annual interest rate of 15% of the financing, three down, the light reached 1.8-2.25 billion in interest on finance. This is part of the interest apportioned making its own shares held by 3400, then the resulting increase in the cost of 5-7 yuan per share.

Re-calculate the fee. The author has had to look at, Changjiushenghua since the launch in March 2000 to October 8 this year, a total turnover of 13.42 billion yuan. As the stamp duty rate of 4 �in the early 2002 fell by 2 � so the stamp duty rates by an average of 3 �of dollars. As the broker of dealer concessions, brokerage commissions by 3.5 �to 1.75 �calculated half. The resulting Changjiushenghua making a total fee of 64 million yuan. 3,400 million shares of its apportioned, then the cost per share, thereby increasing nearly 2 yuan. The two are added together, the dealer costs 7-9 yuan per share. If the bookmakers Xihuo costs 8-9 yuan after the power recovery, the final cost is 15-18 yuan after the power recovery. In fact, the final cost estimate Zhuanggu There is still a simple way, it is to see the collapse of the former long-term sideways Zhuanggu price, the price is the dealer's final cost of the district.

As Changjiushenghua 16-18 yuan more than the share price had been maintained for nearly a year, thus also we can see the cost of district in the 16-18 yuan.

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