Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-03-13
Source: Li Lei Securities Times
Tuesday Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market crash, Yinxian completely covers the years ago, nearly 10% rise, up a record one-day decline in the third-largest decline since the daily limit of the system. Summing up the collapse of the factors, there are several versions, or with the stock index futures-related, or with two related, but they too are far-fetched meaning, finally confirmed by the fact that these are unfounded rumors. While a market bounce back with a vengeance, but the intensity compared with the early rally, obviously weakened. Therefore, investors can not help but confuse, this week plunge since January 30 is the adjustment of the end or just begin?
Not much room for a longer time to adjust
Festival of the relationship between capital supply and demand analysis can be found in order in 2006 two-way flow rate, funding a basic balance between supply and demand, supply slightly less than the demand. In this financial context, the Festival for the first half of the stock market to the stock market will be greater use of large shocks the way to complete. This time, the truth is the market plunge Wei Gao sentiment amplification, which in 1987 the U.S. stock October 19th time in one day fell 23 percent similar.
Net new shares factors, 3000 near the real shock is confirmed withdraw sword after the break all-time high, as compared with the previous high point, this point and the need for greater volatility, and longer poised to time, and institutional investors This appears to those who already deal with. Festival two cities a record high of more than 100 daily limit, while the finance, real estate, food and other institutional investors Shigekura species are among the top decliners, after the opening bell Tuesday, led lower by heavyweight continue until the lower limit can be said that the main funding sell into this round is the main factor index plunged, while the pre-holiday profit taking profit of a large number of behavior become accelerator.
In fact, the institutions heavyweight reduction of long-standing and has been since February 6, although a new high index, but the plates have been several major fund Shigekura For lacking, large-cap, lower and subject matter to maintain market share, while hot, overestimation of the main stage to the Italian variety has already decided in advance to do the first heavyweight, while the lower limit for continuous Guannonggufen speculation themes sounded the alarm. When the signs of continuing to sell the market discovered and lead to a chain effect, the "eat-more" appeared, thus the resulting volume of transaction days.
From a technical level, this adjustment is January 30 to adjust the continuation of Tuesday had fallen below 2800-point intraday line, from the historical times rose more than 9 percent plunge of view, after which there will be inertia in the same direction movement and therefore the re-see the 2600 point may be inevitable. The market now more generally accepted view that it is Hu Zhi repeated shocks in the 2600-3000 points, while the middle to adjust the final set, 2600 points, is a watershed, but also Fanchou critical point.
March Investment themes: underestimating + implantation
March is the news coverage and capital supply and demand conversion of the sensitive period. During the two policies will continue to maintain continuity and stability, but news of the impact of volatility on investor psychology can not be ignored. Interest rates, macro-control is also a month of suspense, which will become the driving force for increased market volatility.
As the two cities in 2007 and 2008, respectively, dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 and 20 times the afternoon was not much room for further substantial decline. However, the Chinese stock market volatility in the global market turmoil has brought investors to the significant drop in 2007 earnings forecast, 3000 points, the need for further poised, the future will enter a period of wide shocks in order to fully changing hands to consolidate the basis for further increases.
Although the index of no improvement, but the opportunity still exist stocks, fell more than 5 percent this week, Hu Zhi, but half of the two cities outperform stocks, 20 stocks rose more than 20%. Only five of them did not share reform companies, 7 ST, 12 Zhi closing price of 10 yuan on the subject of the mining stocks is still hot market, with the new capital market and fund the adjustment of positions, a number of new faces in the top ranks of stock .
In the current state of the market, investors stock picking can be in two ways. From the defense point of view, may wish to stock picking public offering of funds point of view, select the highest-ranked stocks with low price-earnings ratio as the main direction of the adjustment position, in which iron and steel, nonferrous metals, electric power, coal, high-speed, paper plates most concentrated.
Shocks increase the valuation of city alone is not enough, there must be enough to grow as a guarantee of performance. Last Year's Performance driven by growth in corporate profits next year will come from corporate income tax adjustment, the performance this year, growth will be driven mainly by equity injection, therefore, the overall market will continue to be a bright spot in March. According to stock prices change commitments and the integration of central direction, the overall market is mostly concentrated in the iron and steel, nonferrous metals, electric power, military, transportation. Therefore, in March of investment strategies, and take select "key industries, two stock selection, tend to low-cost" approach, that is, the price is relatively undervalued sectors to find the best and worse company, to facilitate the "undervalued + implantation," two operations.
