Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-03
Source: Ping An Securities Author: Xian-Ming Li
Order to maintain the pattern of recent market weakness, particularly in last Thursday's sudden huge adjustment, making investors follow the market trends have generated a certain amount of vacillation. We believe that the operation from the recent market trend point of view, the short-term index is expected to remain high, and even the potential impact on 1,800 points. However, in the macro-control may be strengthened, and expansion of increase in pressure and the external market environment of uncertainty facing the risk of aggravating the context of follow-up to the market faced profit-taking pressures still more distinctly. The medium and long term, stock index is likely to stage the head is being built.
Increased uncertainty in the macro-control
In order to curb China's economy may be overheating, the management at an early stage to increase lending rates, including raising the deposit reserve ratio and other austerity measures, and for the real estate industry, issued a series of regulatory policies. This shows that the management of the current scale of fixed asset investment growth and credit expansion over the issue, has been increasing attention.
But the latest economic data, the overall economy is limited by the impact of macro-control, particularly in fixed-asset investment growth rate remained stubbornly high. 18, National Bureau of Statistics figures released in the first half of China's GDP grew 10.9% year on year growth rate of 0.9 percentage points faster. Which is particularly rapid fixed assets investment growth, an increase of 29.8%, lower than the same period last year, 4.4 percentage points faster. In addition, in the first half yuan new loans totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, up to the central bank to determine the annual new lending target of 87% of the total. Display the current macro-control measures on the overall economy, especially for fixed-asset investment and credit growth inhibition is still limited.
On the existing policy not reach the expected results, the scale of fixed asset investment and credit growth rate failed to fall into the scope of approved cases, the market for management control of the further introduction of other austerity measures, is expected to increase. Last Thursday and so the market is expected to raise interest rates fell sharply under the influence of heavy volume, fully shows the current investors in the macro-control concerns.
Rapid expansion of capital shunt
This week, includes a
Datong-Qinhuangdao railway, including five new shares issued to raise funds total nearly 20 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the media have recently reported that the ICBC in October to achieve A + H sync with the price of distribution, thereby exacerbating the market's concerns about expansion pressure, the author's view, this also contributed to the sharp decline in the market last Thursday, one of the main factors .
We believe that as important functions of the securities market, issuing new shares is to further improve the performance of market functions. For those valuation is reasonable, clear blue-chip investment value, the impact of expansion will be very limited. But in the current market as a whole has been at a relatively high valuations, some of the company's share price has overdrawn its fundamentals, mainly rely on the promotion of funds to maintain the high price case, the expansion of diversion of funds to the markets, as well as high - valuation of stocks brought about by pressure from investors to the market outlook is worth a high degree of caution.
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The same time, issuing new shares and refinancing of time after the suspension of nearly a year, many listed companies will finance a very strong and historical accumulation of shares and re-financing "stock size" has been quite large. So investors mostly expected in the next period of intensive issuance of new shares is inevitable, the market pressures facing the expansion will not be too small.
Semi-annual results for the short-term focus
In our view, from the second quarter, A shares of a company's overall profitability will be improved. Therefore, the semi-annual performance will be expected to be supported by short-term market continues to be active, one of the key factors. In particular, the machinery, financial services, significant earnings growth industry, the market outlook is expected to maintain and stimulate investor confidence will play an active role.
However, investors need to be reminded to note that on the one hand, pre-market continued to rise, makes a lot of individual stocks on their stock performance has been a more fully expected to make the performance of the stock price weakened the supporting role. For example G Baoji Titanium Tuesday's semi-annual report released brilliant performance, after the resumption but opened low. On the other hand, pre-market, the continued strength, to a certain extent strengthened the confidence of investors, making investors A shares generally optimistic about the company's performance expectations. In this case, the semi-annual performance of the uncertainty will make it part of the performance is not up to market expectations of fluctuations in the risk faced by individual stocks have increased. In addition, under the pressure of the macro-control, A-share companies can long-term performance of the upward trend continued in the second quarter, but also worthy of investor attention.
Increased risk of external market volatility
Renewed tension in the Middle East and many other factors to stimulate the international oil prices reaching record highs in the near future, allowing investors to high oil prices could drag on world economic growth, increasing worries. Affected by the recent global stock markets fell across the board. Meanwhile, precious metals, copper, nickel and other non-ferrous metal prices have also emerged in the recent violent shocks.
Although the free flow of capital continues to face greater constraints against the backdrop of the current A-share market and the overseas market is relatively independent, but the overseas market adjustment on the one hand mainly affected by QFII foreign investors confidence in the market for A shares Meanwhile, volatility in commodity markets will also affect investors in the non-ferrous metal stocks may outlook. In addition, A shares and H shares and gradually increase the linkage of the case, H shares of its A shares will also be weak as well as the A shares in the company's performance to a certain extent similar inhibition.
Taken together, the macro-control efforts may be increased, issuing new shares and the market are facing intense profit-taking pressure continued to increase the circumstances, the market is likely to have entered his head to build a mid-stage.
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